THE EFFECTS OF POPULATION HETEROGENEITY ON DISEASE INVASION
THE EFFECTS OF POPULATION HETEROGENEITY ON DISEASE INVASION
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DOI：
10.1016/0025-5564(94)00065-8
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发表时间：
1995-07-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
LEVIN, S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
DUSHOFF, J;LEVIN, S
群体异质性的纳入是理论生物学的一个中心问题，近年来在流行病学中也受到了相当大的关注。本文提出了关于异质性的影响的一般结论和解释，有和没有积极的排斥性交配，油的疾病建立自己的能力。我们表明，一种疾病的入侵到一个人口与随机混合是由每个子组的平均繁殖数，加权的混合活动的子组的总量。特别是，如果混合率在整个种群中是常数，当且仅当种群的平均繁殖数超过1时，入侵发生;在“偏好混合”的情况下，人们可以为每个亚组找到一个临界数，当且仅当适当定义的亚组平均数超过1时，入侵发生。
The incorporation of population heterogeneity is a Central issue in theoretical biology and it has received considerable attention in epidemiology recently. This paper presents general conclusions and interpretations about the effects of heterogeneity, with and without positive assortative mating, oil the ability of a disease to establish itself. We show that the invasion of a disease into a Population with random mixing is determined by an average of reproductive numbers for each subgroup, weighted by the total amount of mixing activity of the subgroup. In particular, if the mixing rate is constant across the population, invasion occurs if and only if the average reproductive number for the population exceeds 1; In the case of ''preferred mixing,'' one can find a critical number for each subgroup such that invasion occurs if and only if a suitably defined average over subgroups exceeds 1.