Abrupt expansion of climate change risks for species globally.
Abrupt expansion of climate change risks for species globally.
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全球物种面临的气候变化风险急剧扩大。
DOI：
10.1038/s41559-023-02070-4
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
16.8
通讯作者：
Pigot AL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Pigot AL
气候变化已经使物种暴露在危险的温度下，导致人口和地理范围的广泛收缩。然而，随着气候变化的持续，这些热暴露风险将如何随着时间的推移在物种现有的地理范围内扩大，人们知之甚少。在这里，我们利用大约 36,000 种海洋和陆地物种的地理数据以及到 2100 年的气候预测，表明每个物种面临热暴露风险的地理范围面积将急剧扩大。平均而言，一个物种的暴露量预计增加 50% 以上将在十年内发生。这种突然性的部分原因是未来预计变暖的速度很快，但也因为热梯度温暖端的可用面积更大，限制了物种不成比例地占据接近其热上限的地点。这些对物种范围结构的地理限制在陆地和海洋中都起作用，这意味着即使在没有放大的生态反馈的情况下，热敏感物种也可能本质上容易受到突然变暖导致的崩溃的影响。随着变暖程度的提高，超过这些热阈值并面临突然和大范围热暴露风险的物种数量会增加，在全球变暖 1.5°C 至 2.5°C 之间，物种数量从不到 15% 翻倍至超过 30%。这些结果表明，对数千个物种的气候威胁预计将在未来几十年内急剧扩大，从而凸显了缓解和适应行动的紧迫性。
Climate change is already exposing species to dangerous temperatures driving widespread population and geographical contractions. However, little is known about how these risks of thermal exposure will expand across species’ existing geographical ranges over time as climate change continues. Here, using geographical data for approximately 36,000 marine and terrestrial species and climate projections to 2100, we show that the area of each species’ geographical range at risk of thermal exposure will expand abruptly. On average, more than 50% of the increase in exposure projected for a species will occur in a single decade. This abruptness is partly due to the rapid pace of future projected warming but also because the greater area available at the warm end of thermal gradients constrains species to disproportionately occupy sites close to their upper thermal limit. These geographical constraints on the structure of species ranges operate both on land and in the ocean and mean that, even in the absence of amplifying ecological feedbacks, thermally sensitive species may be inherently vulnerable to sudden warming-driven collapse. With higher levels of warming, the number of species passing these thermal thresholds, and at risk of abrupt and widespread thermal exposure, increases, doubling from less than 15% to more than 30% between 1.5 °C and 2.5 °C of global warming. These results indicate that climate threats to thousands of species are expected to expand abruptly in the coming decades, thereby highlighting the urgency of mitigation and adaptation actions.