Influence of Indigenous Knowledge and Scientific Climate Forecasts on Arable Farmers’ Climate Adaptation Methods in the Rwenzori region, Western Uganda
Influence of Indigenous Knowledge and Scientific Climate Forecasts on Arable Farmers’ Climate Adaptation Methods in the Rwenzori region, Western Uganda
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乌干达西部鲁文佐里地区土著知识和科学气候预测对耕种农民气候适应方法的影响
DOI：
10.1007/s00267-020-01264-x
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
D. Lesolle
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Nkuba;R. Chanda;G. Mmopelwa;E. Kato;M. Mangheni;D. Lesolle
本文调查了乌干达西部鲁文佐里地区使用本土预测（IF）和科学预测（SF）对耕种农民适应方法的影响。尽管国家气象系统发布了科学预报（SF），但农村地区的耕种农民仍然非常容易受到气候变率和变化的影响。本研究采用混合方法，采用随机和分层抽样的方式，选择了580名耕种农民来调查本研究中的问题。通过家庭调查和焦点小组讨论收集数据，并使用多元概率模型进行分析。研究结果表明，IF 的使用只会对作物多样化、水土保持产生积极影响。使用 SF 和 IF 对牲畜多样化产生了积极影响。作为一种适应性策略，仅使用 IF 或同时使用 SF 和 IF 对植树和树木作物生产产生了积极影响。该研究建议，虽然预测是适应的重要驱动因素，但其他因素也可以帮助加强气候变化适应的努力，例如通过更多地承认正式的习惯权利和土地保有权以及农民对农民网络获取气候变化信息的能力来改善土地权利。各国政府和发展伙伴增加气象站在不同农业生态区的分布，将提高科学预报的预测准确性和当地特异性，从而改善气候变化适应能力。
This paper investigates the influence of using indigenous forecasts (IF) and scientific forecasts (SF) on arable farmers’ adaptation methods in the Rwenzori region, Western Uganda. Despite the dissemination of scientific forecasts (SF) from national meteorological systems, arable farmers in rural areas are still very vulnerable to the impacts of climate variability and change. Using mixed methods approach, the study adopted random and stratified sampling in the selection of 580 arable farmers to investigate the problem under this study. Data were collected using a household survey and focus group discussions, and the multivariate probit model was used in the analysis. The findings indicated that use of IF only positively influenced crop diversification, soil and water conservation. Using both SF and IF positively influenced livestock diversification. Use of either IF only or both SF and IF positively influenced tree-planting and tree crop production as an adaptive strategy. The study recommends that although forecasts are important drivers of adaptation, other factors could also help efforts to enhance climate-change adaptation, such as improving land rights through more recognition of formal customary rights and land tenure and capacity building of farmer-to-farmer networks with climate-change information. Increasing the spread of weather stations in the different agro-ecological zones by national governments and development partners would improve the predictive accuracy and local specificity of scientific forecasts, resulting in improved climate-change adaptation.