Hot temperatures can force delayed mosquito outbreaks via sequential changes in Aedes aegypti demographic parameters in autocorrelated environments
Hot temperatures can force delayed mosquito outbreaks via sequential changes in Aedes aegypti demographic parameters in autocorrelated environments
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.actatropica.2013.02.025
复制
发表时间：
2014-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Takada, Takenori
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chaves, Luis Fernando;Scott, Thomas W.;Takada, Takenori
埃及伊蚊（Aedes aegypti L）（双翅目：蚊科）是一种常见的泛热带城市蚊子，是登革热、黄热病和基孔肯雅病毒的媒介。研究表明，E。埃及伊蚊的数量与环境波动有关，揭示了蚊子爆发延迟等模式，即，在短暂的极端高温之后，蚊子数量突然异常增加。在这里，我们使用一个两阶段（幼虫和成人）矩阵模型，提出了一个机制，环境信号渠道到人口参数的Ae。这可以解释高温引起的蚊子爆发的延迟。我们进行了模型模拟，从泰国的每周时间序列估计的参数，假设独立或自相关的环境。对于自相关环境，我们发现，“热”环境和蚊子爆发之间的关联的长时间延迟（10周，如在泰国观察到的）当“热”环境依次触发幼虫存活率下降和过度补偿性繁殖力增加时，可以产生，这持续整个“热”期，同时，当环境恢复“正常”时，幼虫存活率增加，随后繁殖力下降。在独立的环境中没有观察到这种结果。最后，我们讨论了我们的研究结果对未来昆虫学研究和不断变化的环境下的媒介管理的影响。(C)2013爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
Aedes aegypti L (Diptera: Culicidae) is a common pantropical urban mosquito, vector of dengue, Yellow Fever and chikungunya viruses. Studies have shown Ae. aegypti abundance to be associated with environmental fluctuations, revealing patterns such as the occurrence of delayed mosquito outbreaks, i.e., sudden extraordinary increases in mosquito abundance following transient extreme high temperatures. Here, we use a two-stage (larvae and adults) matrix model to propose a mechanism for environmental signal canalization into demographic parameters of Ae. aegypti that could explain delayed high temperature induced mosquito outbreaks. We performed model simulations using parameters estimated from a weekly time series from Thailand, assuming either independent or autocorrelated environments. For autocorrelated environments, we found that long delays in the association between the onset of "hot" environments and mosquito outbreaks (10 weeks, as observed in Thailand) can be generated when "hot" environments sequentially trigger a larval survival decrease and over-compensatory fecundity increase, which lasts for the whole "hot" period, in conjunction with a larval survival increase followed by a fecundity decrease when the environment returns to "normal". This result was not observed for independent environments. Finally, we discuss our results implications for prospective entomological research and vector management under changing environments. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.