Hysteresis and the NAIRU in the Euro Area
Hysteresis and the NAIRU in the Euro Area
复制标题
欧元区的滞后现象和 NAIRU
DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-9485.2006.00387.x
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Silke Tober
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Camille Logeay;Silke Tober
本文分析了欧元区的经济滞后性及其对其发展的影响。使用卡尔曼滤波技术，我们发现Nairu自70年代初以来变化很大。这里使用显式外生变量应用卡尔曼滤波技术。为了检验滞后性，我们估计了Nairu对实际失业率和长期失业率的依赖，发现在欧元区和德国Nairu对实际失业率和长期失业率的依赖分别是显著的。滞后效应的存在意味着货币政策长期非超中性的可能性。
This paper analyses the Nairu in the Euro Area and the influence that hysteresis had on its development. Using the Kalman-filter technique we find that the Nairu has varied considerably since the early seventies. The Kalman-filter technique is applied here using explicit exogenous variables. In order to test for hysteresis, the dependence of the Nairu on actual unemployment and long-term unemployment is estimated and found to be significant for the Euro Area and Germany respectively. The existence of hysteresis effects implies the possibility of a long-run non-superneutrality of monetary policy.