Occurrence and Coupling of Heat and Ozone Events and Their Relation to Mortality Rates in Berlin, Germany, between 2000 and 2014
Occurrence and Coupling of Heat and Ozone Events and Their Relation to Mortality Rates in Berlin, Germany, between 2000 and 2014
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DOI：
10.3390/atmos10060348
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发表时间：
2019-06
期刊：
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Alexander Krug;D. Fenner;A. Holtmann;D. Scherer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Alexander Krug;D. Fenner;A. Holtmann;D. Scherer
天气炎热和空气质量差对公众健康造成严重影响。在这项研究中，这些事件是通过应用每日气温和臭氧浓度的观测数据，以事件为基础的风险评估方法，以检测个人的热量和臭氧事件，以及他们共同发生的事件在柏林，德国，在2000年至2014年。探讨了各种阈值，以确定这些事件，并寻找适当的回归阈值之间的死亡率和死亡率。这些事件进一步分析其特定事件的死亡率和时间发生。结果表明，在研究期间，至少有40%的热事件伴随着柏林臭氧浓度的增加，特别是最强烈和最长的热事件。虽然臭氧事件本身与死亡率增加的关系很小，但高温事件期间臭氧浓度升高会放大死亡率。我们的结论是，高温事件期间的空气温度升高是柏林死亡率增加的主要驱动因素，但同时发生的臭氧浓度升高作为一个额外的压力源，导致该地区人口的风险增加。
Episodes of hot weather and poor air quality pose significant consequences for public health. In this study, these episodes are addressed by applying the observational data of daily air temperature and ozone concentrations in an event-based risk assessment approach in order to detect individual heat and ozone events, as well as events of their co-occurrence in Berlin, Germany, in the years 2000 to 2014. Various threshold values are explored so as to identify these events and to search for the appropriate regressions between the threshold exceedances and mortality rates. The events are further analyzed in terms of their event-specific mortality rates and their temporal occurrences. The results reveal that at least 40% of all heat events during the study period are accompanied by increased ozone concentrations in Berlin, particularly the most intense and longest heat events. While ozone events alone are only weakly associated with increased mortality rates, elevated ozone concentrations during heat events are found to amplify mortality rates. We conclude that elevated air temperatures during heat events are one major driver for increased mortality rates in Berlin, but simultaneously occurring elevated ozone concentrations act as an additional stressor, leading to an increased risk for the regional population.