Freshwater species distributions along thermal gradients
Freshwater species distributions along thermal gradients
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DOI：
10.1002/ece3.4659
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发表时间：
2018-12
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Oskar Kärcher;D. Hering;K. Frank;D. Markovic
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Oskar Kärcher;D. Hering;K. Frank;D. Markovic
一个物种沿着热梯度的分布通常近似为单峰响应曲线，在最有可能发现物种的温度附近有一个特征性的单一最佳值，远离最佳值的出现概率逐渐减小。我们的目的是确定欧洲淡水物种的热响应曲线（TRC），并评估气候变暖对物种，分类群和纬度的潜在影响。我们首先应用广义加性模型，使用欧洲577种淡水物种分布范围的流域尺度全球数据和四个不同的温度变量（当前年平均空气/水温和最温暖月份的最高空气/水温）来描述物种TRC。然后，我们将TRC分为八种曲线类型之一，并确定了热响应的空间模式。最后，我们结合经验的TRC和气候变暖的预测地理分布，以评估温度上升对物种分布的影响。对于不同的温度变量，390-463的577种（67.6%-80.2%）的特点是单峰的TRC。单峰TRC的物种数量从中欧向北方和南欧减少。耐温性（WT =最高温度发生的首选温度）是在较高的纬度。许多物种的首选温度已经超过。气温上升将影响大多数地中海物种。我们证明，淡水物种的出现概率是最常见的单峰。全球气候变暖对物种分布的影响与物种和纬度有关。在所研究的分类群体中，气温上升对鱼类的危害最大。我们的研究结果支持了在全球变暖的情况下，以流域为基础的淡水管理和保护的努力。
Abstract The distribution of a species along a thermal gradient is commonly approximated by a unimodal response curve, with a characteristic single optimum near the temperature where a species is most likely to be found, and a decreasing probability of occurrence away from the optimum. We aimed at identifying thermal response curves (TRCs) of European freshwater species and evaluating the potential impact of climate warming across species, taxonomic groups, and latitude. We first applied generalized additive models using catchment‐scale global data on distribution ranges of 577 freshwater species native to Europe and four different temperature variables (the current annual mean air/water temperature and the maximum air/water temperature of the warmest month) to describe species TRCs. We then classified TRCs into one of eight curve types and identified spatial patterns in thermal responses. Finally, we integrated empirical TRCs and the projected geographic distribution of climate warming to evaluate the effect of rising temperatures on species’ distributions. For the different temperature variables, 390–463 of 577 species (67.6%–80.2%) were characterized by a unimodal TRC. The number of species with a unimodal TRC decreased from central toward northern and southern Europe. Warming tolerance (WT = maximum temperature of occurrence—preferred temperature) was higher at higher latitudes. Preferred temperature of many species is already exceeded. Rising temperatures will affect most Mediterranean species. We demonstrated that freshwater species’ occurrence probabilities are most frequently unimodal. The impact of the global climate warming on species distributions is species and latitude dependent. Among the studied taxonomic groups, rising temperatures will be most detrimental to fish. Our findings support the efforts of catchment‐based freshwater management and conservation in the face of global warming.