Habitats change of Tibetan antelope and its influencing factors on the North Tibetan Plateau from 2020 to 2050
Habitats change of Tibetan antelope and its influencing factors on the North Tibetan Plateau from 2020 to 2050
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gecco.2023.e02462
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发表时间：
2023-06
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Ziqian Wei;Zengrang Xu;Tian Qiao;Shouxing Wang;N. Ishwaran;mingxin yang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ziqian Wei;Zengrang Xu;Tian Qiao;Shouxing Wang;N. Ishwaran;mingxin yang
产犊栖息地广泛分布在国家保护区，面积达348,768平方公里。预计最暖季的平均降水、土地覆盖和NPP是生境的主要贡献者。2)在代表性浓度路径（RCP）2.6、RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下，预计2020-2050年越冬生境盖度将分别增加5.93%、12.87%和4.52%，产犊生境将分别增加5.20%、8.77%和21.23%。预计到2050年，越冬栖息地将扩大约27,000平方公里，产犊栖息地将扩大30,500平方公里。预计最暖季的平均温度、土地覆盖、NPP和与水源的距离是生境的主要影响因素。③2020年，NTP中南部地区的人类活动强度高于北部地区。干扰区分别占总越冬生境的48%和总产犊生境的1/3。未来，人类活动在“国家保护区”中南部地区可能会加剧，同时预计羚羊栖息地将扩大，导致社区发展与野生动物保护之间的冲突加剧。在国家结核控制规划的北部地区，人为干扰可能会减少。
As an alpine environment sensitive to global climate change and human activities, habitats of Tibetan antelope are exposed to a variety of challenges. Wintering and calving habitats of Tibetan antelopes in 2020 and 2050 on the North Tibetan Plateau (NTP), China were simulated with Maxent model using data of sites where Tibetan antelopes were present; contribution of environmental variables to the habitats distribution in current and future scenarios was analyzed via jackknife test; and current levels of human disturbances were quantified with InVEST model. Conclusions were: 1) in 2020, wintering habitats of Tibetan antelope concentrated in the central and southern parts of the NTP, covered an area of 216,000 km2. The calving habitats, scattered extensively in the NTP, covered an area of 348,768 km2. Mean precipitation of the warmest quarter, land cover and NPP were predicted to be large contributors to habitats. 2) During 2020–2050, the wintering habitats coverage was projected to increase 5.93 %, 12.87 % and 4.52 %, and the calving habitats to increase 5.20 %, 8.77 % and 21.23 %, under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The wintering habitats was predicted to expand by roughly 27,000 km2and the calving habitats by 30,500 km2in 2050. Mean temperature of the warmest quarter, land cover, NPP, and distance from water sources were predicted to be large contributors to habitats. 3) In 2020, human activities in the middle and southern parts of the NTP were more intense compared to those in the northern parts. Disturbed areas accounted for 48 % of the total wintering habitats, and 1/3 of the total calving habitats, respectively. In the future, human activities in the middle and southern parts of the NTP may intensify, concurrent with the predicted expansion of antelope habitats, resulting in exacerbation of conflicts between community development and wildlife conservation. In the northern parts of NTP, human disturbance may decrease. For better understanding habitats scenarios, we need to gather more data on distribution patterns and behavioral ecology of Tibetan antelope within the wintering and calving seasons. We recommend setting up systems for monitoring habitats changes of Tibetan antelope that could help in defining the national park area to cover critical antelope habitats and manage herdsmen and livestock uses of the areas within the carrying capacity of grasslands, particularly through diversification of livelihoods and support to green development of local communities.