Shifting public opinion on climate change: an empirical assessment of factors influencing concern over climate change in the U.S., 2002-2010
Shifting public opinion on climate change: an empirical assessment of factors influencing concern over climate change in the U.S., 2002-2010
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-012-0403-y
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发表时间：
2012-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Jenkins, J. Craig
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brulle, Robert J.;Carmichael, Jason;Jenkins, J. Craig
本文对2002年1月至2010年12月期间影响美国公众对气候变化威胁关注的因素进行了实证分析。利用史汀生的方法，构建聚合的意见措施，数据从74个独立的调查在9年的时间内被用来构建季度措施公众关注全球气候变化。我们研究了五个因素，这些因素应该解释关注程度的变化：1）极端天气事件，2）公众获得准确的科学信息，3）媒体报道，4）精英线索，5）运动/反运动宣传。时间序列分析表明，精英线索和结构性经济因素对公众对气候变化的关注程度影响最大。虽然媒体报道发挥了重要影响，但这种报道本身在很大程度上是精英暗示和经济因素的函数。极端天气不会对公众舆论产生影响。向公众传播有关气候变化的科学信息的影响微乎其微。其含义似乎是，以信息为基础的科学宣传对公众关注的影响很小，而精英和宣传团体的政治动员在影响气候变化关注方面至关重要。
This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the factors affecting U.S. public concern about the threat of climate change between January 2002 and December 2010. Utilizing Stimson's method of constructing aggregate opinion measures, data from 74 separate surveys over a 9-year period are used to construct quarterly measures of public concern over global climate change. We examine five factors that should account for changes in levels of concern: 1) extreme weather events, 2) public access to accurate scientific information, 3) media coverage, 4) elite cues, and 5) movement/countermovement advocacy. A time-series analysis indicates that elite cues and structural economic factors have the largest effect on the level of public concern about climate change. While media coverage exerts an important influence, this coverage is itself largely a function of elite cues and economic factors. Weather extremes have no effect on aggregate public opinion. Promulgation of scientific information to the public on climate change has a minimal effect. The implication would seem to be that information-based science advocacy has had only a minor effect on public concern, while political mobilization by elites and advocacy groups is critical in influencing climate change concern.