Greenhouse-gas forced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and related worldwide sea-level change
Greenhouse-gas forced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and related worldwide sea-level change
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-022-06386-y
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发表时间：
2022-08
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
M. Couldrey;J. Gregory;Xiao Dong;O. Garuba;H. Haak;A. Hu;W. Hurlin;Jiangbo Jin;J. Jungclaus;A. Köhl;Hailong Liu;S. Ojha;O. Saenko;A. Savita;Tatsuo Suzuki;Zipeng Yu;L. Zanna
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作者：
M. Couldrey;J. Gregory;Xiao Dong;O. Garuba;H. Haak;A. Hu;W. Hurlin;Jiangbo Jin;J. Jungclaus;A. Köhl;Hailong Liu;S. Ojha;O. Saenko;A. Savita;Tatsuo Suzuki;Zipeng Yu;L. Zanna
由于大气-海洋环流模式（AOGCM）对强迫的响应不同，因此预测海洋中人为气候变化的影响具有挑战性。本研究的重点是大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）、海洋热含量（OHC）和海洋动力海平面的空间格局（）的变化。我们分析实验FAFMIP协议，其中AOGCM被迫在海洋表面与标准化的热量，淡水和动量通量扰动，典型的加倍产生的。利用两个新的热通量强迫实验，我们发现AMOC的减弱主要是由北大西洋热通量扰动引起的，并与之线性相关，并且通过正耦合热通量反馈进一步减弱。的定量关系是依赖于模型，但很少有模型显示显着的AMOC变化，由于淡水或动量强迫，或热通量强迫北大西洋以外。AMOC下降导致南南极-南大洋界面变暖。它并没有强烈影响全球平均垂直分布OHC，这是南大洋占主导地位。AMOC的下降对北大西洋的影响很大，对南大洋和北太平洋的影响较小。总体平均和OHC模式主要归因于通量扰动增加的热量，海洋热量和盐度再分布的影响较小。另一方面，总体扩散主要是由于再分配，AOGCM之间存在明显的分歧。
The effect of anthropogenic climate change in the ocean is challenging to project because atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond differently to forcing. This study focuses on changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ocean heat content (OHC), and the spatial pattern of ocean dynamic sea level (). We analyse experiments following the FAFMIP protocol, in which AOGCMs are forced at the ocean surface with standardised heat, freshwater and momentum flux perturbations, typical of those produced by doubling. Using two new heat-flux-forced experiments, we find that the AMOC weakening is mainly caused by and linearly related to the North Atlantic heat flux perturbation, and further weakened by a positive coupled heat flux feedback. The quantitative relationships are model-dependent, but few models show significant AMOC change due to freshwater or momentum forcing, or to heat flux forcing outside the North Atlantic. AMOC decline causes warming at the South Atlantic-Southern Ocean interface. It does not strongly affect the global-mean vertical distribution ofOHC, which is dominated by the Southern Ocean. AMOC decline strongly affectsin the North Atlantic, with smaller effects in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific. The ensemble-meanandOHC patterns are mostly attributable to the heat added by the flux perturbation, with smaller effects from ocean heat and salinity redistribution. The ensemble spread, on the other hand, is largely due to redistribution, with pronounced disagreement among the AOGCMs.