Investment planning for earthquake-resilient electric power systems considering cascading outages
Investment planning for earthquake-resilient electric power systems considering cascading outages
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DOI：
10.1177/87552930221076870
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发表时间：
2022-02
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Boyu Cheng;L. Nozick;I. Dobson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Boyu Cheng;L. Nozick;I. Dobson
地震由于直接的物理损坏和通过启动级联过程而导致电力传输系统部件的中断。本文探讨了提高电力传输系统对地震的恢复能力的最佳容量投资是什么，以及这些投资在两个问题上是如何变化的：(1)在投资优化模型中包括级联的影响；(2)在地震后的早期阶段更加关注停电的影响，而不是在整个恢复过程中更加均匀地关注停电。建立了一个由样本公用事业数据统计驱动的级联停电模型，并用于定位级联线路。我们比较了有级联模型和没有级联模型的投资计划，以及在恢复过程的不同时期对发生的中断的不同重视程度。以地震灾害主要来自新马德里地震带的东部互联输电网为例，我们发现梯级对最优容量增强投资集的影响很小。然而，瀑布确实对恢复过程的早期阶段产生了重大影响。此外，级联线可以远离最初的物理损坏线。更广泛地说，地震恢复过程的早期阶段受到级联停电程度的影响，对搜索和救援以及恢复重要服务至关重要。此外，我们还表明，与统一关注整个6个月恢复过程中的中断的投资计划相比，更侧重于地震后前3天的中断的投资计划在第一个月产生的中断较少，但之后的中断更多。
Earthquakes cause outages of power transmission system components due to direct physical damage and also through the initiation of cascading processes. This article explores what are the optimal capacity investments to increase the resilience of electric power transmission systems to earthquakes and how those investments change with respect to two issues: (1) the impact of including cascades in the investment optimization model and (2) the impact of focusing more heavily on the early stages of the outages after the earthquake in contrast to more evenly focusing on outages across the entire restoration process. A cascading outage model driven by the statistics of sample utility data is developed and used to locate the cascading lines. We compare the investment plans with and without the modeling of the cascades and with different levels of importance attached to outages that occur during different periods of the restoration process. Using a case study of the Eastern Interconnect transmission grid, where the seismic hazard stems mostly from the New Madrid Seismic Zone, we find that the cascades have little effect on the optimal set of capacity enhancement investments. However, the cascades do have a significant impact on the early stages of the restoration process. Also, the cascading lines can be far away from the initial physically damaged lines. More broadly, the early stages of the earthquake restoration process is affected by the extent of the cascading outages and is critical for search and rescue as well as restoring vital services. Also, we show that an investment plan focusing more heavily on outages in the first 3 days after the earthquake yields fewer outages in the first month, but more outages later in comparison with an investment plan focusing uniformly on outages over an entire 6-month restoration process.