Dampening General Equilibrium: From Micro to Macro
Dampening General Equilibrium: From Micro to Macro
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DOI：
10.3386/w23379
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发表时间：
2017-05
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
G. Angeletos;C. Lian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Angeletos;C. Lian
我们认为，标准的建模实践往往夸大了一般均衡（GE）机制的效力。我们正式的概念，通用电气调整是弱的，或者说，它需要时间，通过修改一个基本的瓦尔拉斯经济在两个可供选择的方式。在第一种方法中，我们将理性预期均衡替换为模拟张力或蛛网动力学、k级思维、反思均衡和某些认知折扣的解决方案概念。在另一种情况下，我们保持理性预期，但消除了对总体冲击的常识，并适应了更高阶的不确定性。这使我们不仅能够说明通用电气调整可能是弱的或缓慢的概念的更广泛的可接受性，而且还说明了我们首选的方法--基于缺乏常识的方法--可以被视为某种有限理性的有纪律的替代品。最后，我们讨论了可能的应用，包括我们的研究结果如何可能有助于减少利率的宏观经济效应和越来越多的经验文献中估计的微观或局部效应之间的差距。
We argue that standard modeling practices often overstate the potency of general-equilibrium (GE) mechanisms. We formalize the notion that GE adjustment is weak, or that it takes time, by modifying an elementary Walrasian economy in two alternative manners. In one, we replace Rational Expectations Equilibrium with solution concepts that mimic Tâtonnement or Cobweb dynamics, Level-k Thinking, Reflective Equilibrium, and certain kinds of cognitive discounting. In the other, we maintain rational expectations but remove common knowledge of aggregate shocks and accommodate higher-order uncertainty. This permits us, not only to illustrate the broader plausibility of the notion that the GE adjustment may be weak or slow, but also to illustrate the sense in which our preferred approach—the one based on lack of common knowledge—can be seen as a disciplined substitute to certain kinds of bounded rationality. We finally discuss possible applications, including how our results may help reduce the gap between the macroeconomic effects of interest and the micro or local effects estimated in a growing empirical literature.