Climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategies in Egypt's agricultural sector
Climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategies in Egypt's agricultural sector
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DOI：
10.1007/s11027-013-9520-9
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发表时间：
2015-10-01
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Hynninen, Riina
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McCarl, Bruce A.;Musumba, Mark;Hynninen, Riina
埃及农业易受潜在气候变化的影响，因为它依赖于灌溉作物，气候过于干燥，无法支持作物生长，并且水需求不断增加。本研究分析了气候变化和人口增长对农业的影响以及可能的适应战略。部分平衡模型，模拟作物和畜牧业生产沿着水流量和非农业用水是用来分析气候变化的影响。该研究审查了气候变化对作物产量、牲畜生产、非农业用水、供水、灌溉用水、海平面上升和人口增长的影响。结果表明，气候变化损害埃及农业部门和损害增加随着时间的推移（2030-2060）。农产品价格上涨，这对消费者有负面影响，但对生产者有正面影响。埃及可以通过降低需求增长、提高农业技术进步、保护海平面上升和水资源保护战略来减少这些损害。
Egyptian agriculture is vulnerable to potential climate change due to its dependence on irrigated crops, a climate that is too dry to support crops, and increasing water demands. This study analyzes the agricultural implications of climate change and population growth plus possible adaptations strategies. A partial equilibrium model that simulates crop and livestock production along with water flows and non-agricultural water use is used to analyze the impact of climate change. The study examines the implications of climate change effects on crop yields, livestock performance, non-agricultural water use, water supply, irrigation water use, sea level rise and a growing population. Results indicate that climate change damages the Egyptian agricultural sector and the damages increase over time (2030-2060). Prices for agricultural commodities increase and this has a negative effect on consumers but a positive effect on producers. Egypt may reduce these damages by adapting through lower demand growth, raised agricultural technological progress, sea rise protection and water conservation strategies.