Mapping the climate change challenge
Mapping the climate change challenge
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate3057
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发表时间：
2016-07-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
van Vuuren, Detlef P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hallegatte, Stephane;Rogelj, Joeri;van Vuuren, Detlef P.
2015 年在巴黎举行的《联合国气候变化框架公约》谈判中，关于限制气候变化的长期全球目标（以变暖上限为形式）的讨论仅部分得到解决。这样的政治协议必须以科学知识为基础。传达政策成本和收益的一种方法是通过系统地探索不同选择的后果的映射。这种基于一系列情景分析的多学科努力有助于构建 IPCC AR5 综合报告。本视角总结了这种方法，回顾了其优点和局限性，并讨论了决策者如何在实践中使用其结果。它还确定了可以促进气候变化综合分析并帮助更好地为政策制定者和公众提供信息的研究需求。
Discussions on a long-term global goal to limit climate change, in the form of an upper limit to warming, were only partially resolved at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations in Paris, 2015. Such a political agreement must be informed by scientific knowledge. One way to communicate the costs and benefits of policies is through a mapping that systematically explores the consequences of different choices. Such a multi-disciplinary effort based on the analysis of a set of scenarios helped structure the IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report. This Perspective summarizes this approach, reviews its strengths and limitations, and discusses how decision-makers can use its results in practice. It also identifies research needs that can facilitate integrated analysis of climate change and help better inform policy-makers and the public.