Synergistic contributions of climate and management intensifications to maize yield trends from 1961 to 2017
Synergistic contributions of climate and management intensifications to maize yield trends from 1961 to 2017
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/acb27f
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发表时间：
2023-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
H. Medina;D. Tian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Medina;D. Tian
了解气候和管理强化对作物产量趋势的贡献对于更好地适应气候变化和衡量未来的粮食安全至关重要。在这里，我们使用基于过程的建模方法，利用详细的气候和农艺观测数据库，量化了1961年至2017年爱荷华州（美国）气候和管理集约化对玉米产量趋势的协同贡献。我们发现，在1961-2017年、1984-2013年和1982-1998年期间，气候（管理强化）对产量趋势的贡献分别约为10%（90%）、26%（74%）和31%（69%）。然而，气候贡献表现出显著的年代际或多年代变化，温度或辐射变化引起的最大产量的年代际趋势接近管理加强引起的趋势，而大大大于降水引起的趋势。管理强化可以产生更多的产量增加，降水量增加，但更大的产量损失与温度升高，极端干旱条件下减少产量收益，而辐射变化对产量收益的影响不大，从管理强化。在近几年的管理条件下，较高升温水平下的平均趋势比较低升温水平下的平均趋势低约2倍，产量对升温温度的敏感性随着1961 - 2017年管理强度的增加而增加。由于这种协同效应，加强管理必须考虑到全球变暖，并纳入气候适应战略，以确保未来的作物生产。需要进行更多的研究，以了解合理的适应战略如何能够减轻气候和管理强化的协同效应。
Understanding contributions of climate and management intensifications to crop yield trends is essential to better adapt to climate changes and gauge future food security. Here we quantified the synergistic contributions of climate and management intensifications to maize yield trends from 1961 to 2017 in Iowa (United States) using a process-based modeling approach with a detailed climatic and agronomic observation database. We found that climate (management intensifications) contributes to approximately 10% (90%), 26% (74%), and 31% (69%) of the yield trends during 1961–2017, 1984–2013, and 1982–1998, respectively. However, the climate contributions show substantial decadal or multi-decadal variations, with the maximum decadal yield trends induced by temperature or radiation changes close to management intensifications induced trends while considerably larger than precipitation induced trends. Management intensifications can produce more yield gains with increased precipitation but greater losses of yields with increased temperature, with extreme drought conditions diminishing the yield gains, while radiation changes have little effect on yield gains from management intensifications. Under the management condition of recent years, the average trend at the higher warming level was about twice lower than that at the lower warming level, and the sensitivity of yield to warming temperature increased with management intensifications from 1961 to 2017. Due to such synergistic effects, management intensifications must account for global warming and incorporate climate adaptation strategies to secure future crop productions. Additional research is needed to understand how plausible adaptation strategies can mitigate synergistic effects from climate and management intensifications.