Analysis of soil moisture trends in the Salt River watershed of central Arizona
Analysis of soil moisture trends in the Salt River watershed of central Arizona
复制标题
亚利桑那州中部盐河流域土壤湿度趋势分析
DOI：
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Ellis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Svoma;R. Balling;A. Ellis
在本次调查中，我们对盐河流域的土壤湿度进行了估计，不断扩张的亚利桑那州凤凰城市近一半的供水依赖该盆地。虽然之前的实证研究对美国西南部最近的干旱趋势产生了好坏参半的结果，但我们的结果支持了许多数值气候模型，这些模型预测该地区将因温室气体的积累而变得更加干燥。在 1895 年至 2007 年期间，我们发现土壤湿度水平没有显着变化。然而，如果我们将研究限制在 1980 年至 2007 年期间，土壤湿度水平会以统计上高度显着的速度下降。我们几乎找不到证据表明这一趋势与厄尔尼诺南方涛动和太平洋十年涛动的变化有关。二十世纪下半叶我们研究区域不断增加的地表压力可能是导致干燥条件的催化剂。
In this investigation, we generate estimates of soil moisture for the Salt River basin on which the expanding city of Phoenix, Arizona relies upon for nearly half of its water supply. While previous empirical studies have produced mixed results concerning recent drought trends in the southwestern USA, our results support the many numerical climate models which predict that this region will become drier in response to the buildup of greenhouse gases. Over the period 1895–2007, we found that soil moisture levels revealed no significant change. However, if we restrict the study to the period 1980–2007, soil moisture levels have decreased at a highly statistically significant rate. We could find little evidence that the trend is associated with variations in El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Increasing surface pressure over our study area during the latter half of the twentieth century may be a catalyst for the drier conditions.