Introduction to 75 the Anniversary of the Nagasaki Atomic Bombing Supplement Issue on the Nuclear-Pandemic Nexus Scenarios
Introduction to 75 the Anniversary of the Nagasaki Atomic Bombing Supplement Issue on the Nuclear-Pandemic Nexus Scenarios
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长崎原子弹爆炸75周年关于核流行病关联情景的增刊简介
DOI：
10.1080/25751654.2021.1903761
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
0.7
通讯作者：
Yoshida Fumihiko
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hayes Peter;Moon Chung-in;Suzuki Tatsujiro;Yoshida Fumihiko
即使在2020年第一季度大流行袭击人类之前，由于目前九个拥有核武器国家的核威胁导致全球秩序的复杂性，核战争的风险就在增加。由于特朗普政府主要官员旨在破坏现有军控条约的意识形态观点和反复无常的行动，核军备控制和裁军正在退却。这种敌意是在历史性军备控制条约与新兴战略体系（如不断扩散的反弹道和反卫星武器）、新型核武器运载平台（如无人潜航器和高超音速系统）以及网络武器和人工智能等破坏性技术之间日益扩大的不匹配上叠加的。以印度和巴基斯坦、美国和朝鲜、俄罗斯和北约盟国为中心的地区冲突，在最近的危机中都构成了常规战争和升级为核战争的真正风险。一些中等和大国也在采取更加专制的政治制度，而他们的领导人则支持民族主义、民粹主义，甚至是蛊惑人心的观点。这些趋势开始扰乱贸易流动，对难民关闭边境，减缓移民，限制信息的自由流动，从而扭转了过去几十年全球化的趋势。与此同时，其他生存威胁爆发为旷日持久的危机，强调了国家和社会的恢复能力，最关键的是，气候引发的大火、洪水和两个半球的超级风暴。2019年最后一个季度和2020年第一季度，冠状病毒大流行爆发了，在这一令人沮丧和日益危险的场景上，世界发生了翻天覆地的变化。边境关闭，国际旅行暂停，城市和州被封锁，在某些情况下长达四个多月以控制病毒攻击。即便如此，仍有数百万人被感染、死亡或住院。一些国家从一开始就管理得很好，或者恢复得很快——考虑到中国的规模，最显著的是。有些人很幸运，或者受到季节的青睐。但许多州发现，它们的公共卫生系统和政治系统被covid - 19引发的压力压得不堪重负，未能灾难性地遏制这一流行病，最初是在欧洲，但最明显的是在美国。与此同时，全球科研机构与大型制药公司达成了共识
Even before the pandemic hit humanity in the first quarter of 2020, the risk of nuclear war was increasing due to the complexity of the global order based on nuclear threat from now nine nuclear-armed states. Nuclear arms control and disarmament were on the retreat due to the ideological views and capricious actions of leading Trump Administration officials aimed at destroying existing arms control treaties. This animus was superimposed on the widening mismatch between historic arms control treaties and emerging strategic systems such as proliferating anti-ballistic and anti-satellite weapons, new nuclear weapon delivery platforms such as submarine drones and hypersonic systems, and disruptive technologies such as cyber weapons and artificial intelligence. Regional conflicts centered on India and Pakistan, the United States and the DPRK, and Russia and the NATO allies, all posed real risk of conventional war and escalation to nuclear war in recent crises. A number of middle and great powers were also adopting more authoritarian political institutions while their leaders espoused nationalist, populist, and even demagogic views. These trends began to disrupt trade flows, and to close borders to refugees, slowed migration, and limited free flow of information, thereby reversing the trends of previous decades of globalization. Concurrently, other existential threats erupted into protracted crises that stressed the resilience of states and societies, most critically, climate-induced firestorms, floods, and super-storms in both hemispheres.Onto this dismal and increasingly dangerous tableau burst the coronavirus pandemic in the last quarter of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, turning the world upside down. Borders slammed shut, international travel ground to a halt, cities and states locked down, in some cases for more than four months to control the viral attack. Even so, millions were infected, died or were hospitalized. Some states managed well from the start or recovered quickly–most significantly given its size, China. Some were lucky or were favored by the season. But many states found their public health systems–and their political systems–overwhelmed by Covid19-induced stress, and failed catastrophically to contain the pandemic, initially in Europe, but most notably in the United States. Meanwhile, global scientific institutions made common cause with big pharma to make