Phenotypic plasticity increases exposure to extreme climatic events that reduce individual fitness.
Phenotypic plasticity increases exposure to extreme climatic events that reduce individual fitness.
复制标题
表型可塑性增加了对极端气候事件的暴露，从而降低了个体的健康水平。
DOI：
10.1111/gcb.16663
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Regan CE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Regan CE
气候模型和经验观察表明，人为气候变化正在导致极端气候事件(ECEs)的发生和严重程度的变化。平均气候的变化对动物和植物种群的物候、运动和人口统计学的影响都有很好的记录。相比之下，探索ECEs对自然人口的影响的工作不太常见，至少部分原因是获得足够的数据来研究这种罕见事件的挑战。在这里，我们在牛津附近对大山雀进行的一项长期研究中评估了欧洲经委会模式变化的影响，研究时间为1965年至2020年之间的56年。我们记录了温度ECEs频率的显著变化，20世纪60年代冷ECEs的频率是现在的两倍，2010-2020年间热ECEs的频率是1960年代的三倍。虽然单一的欧洲经委会的影响通常很小，但我们表明，增加对欧洲共同市场的暴露往往会减少生殖产出，在某些情况下，不同类型的欧洲经委会的影响是协同的。我们进一步表明，由表型可塑性引起的物候的长期时间变化，会导致生殖早期暴露于低温ECEs的风险增加，因此表明ECEs暴露的变化可能作为可塑性的代价。总体而言，我们的分析揭示了随着欧洲经委会模式的变化而暴露和影响的一系列复杂风险，并强调了考虑对平均气候和极端事件变化的反应的重要性。ECEs对自然人口的暴露模式和影响仍未得到充分探索，继续开展工作对于确定气候变化中ECEs对人口的影响至关重要。
Climate models, and empirical observations, suggest that anthropogenic climate change is leading to changes in the occurrence and severity of extreme climatic events (ECEs). Effects of changes in mean climate on phenology, movement, and demography in animal and plant populations are well documented. In contrast, work exploring the impacts of ECEs on natural populations is less common, at least partially due to the challenges of obtaining sufficient data to study such rare events. Here, we assess the effect of changes in ECE patterns in a long‐term study of great tits, near Oxford, over a 56‐year period between 1965 and 2020. We document marked changes in the frequency of temperature ECEs, with cold ECEs being twice as frequent in the 1960s than at present, and hot ECEs being ~three times more frequent between 2010 and 2020 than in the 1960s. While the effect of single ECEs was generally quite small, we show that increased exposure to ECEs often reduces reproductive output, and that in some cases the effect of different types of ECE is synergistic. We further show that long‐term temporal changes in phenology, resulting from phenotypic plasticity, lead to an elevated risk of exposure to low temperature ECEs early in reproduction, and hence suggest that changes in ECE exposure may act as a cost of plasticity. Overall, our analyses reveal a complex set of risks of exposure and effects as ECE patterns change and highlight the importance of considering responses to changes in both mean climate and extreme events. Patterns in exposure and effects of ECEs on natural populations remain underexplored and continued work will be vital to establish the impacts of ECEs on populations in a changing climate.