Decadal Prediction in the Pacific Region
Decadal Prediction in the Pacific Region
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DOI：
10.1175/2010jcli3296.1
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发表时间：
2010-06
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
G. Meehl;A. Hu;C. Tebaldi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Meehl;A. Hu;C. Tebaldi
摘要利用一个全球耦合气候模式30元集合的“完美模式”配置，对太平洋海温进行了年代际预报。所有的模式数据进行低通滤波，专注于低频十年分量。二十世纪模拟中的前三个EOF代表了总方差的近80%，被用作二十一世纪早期预测的基础。前两个EOF分别代表强迫趋势和年代际太平洋涛动（IPO），在以前的研究中指出，和第三个趋势和IPO模式的元素。完美的模式参考模拟，预测的目标，是作为实验，连续运行从二十世纪到二十一世纪使用人为和自然强迫的二十世纪和A1 B情景的二十一世纪。其他29个成员使用2000年的大气扰动，并一直运行到2061年。IPO被认为是一个...
Abstract A “perfect model” configuration with a global coupled climate model 30-member ensemble is used to address decadal prediction of Pacific SSTs. All model data are low-pass filtered to focus on the low-frequency decadal component. The first three EOFs in the twentieth-century simulation, representing nearly 80% of the total variance, are used as the basis for early twenty-first-century predictions. The first two EOFs represent the forced trend and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), respectively, as noted in previous studies, and the third has elements of both trend and IPO patterns. The perfect model reference simulation, the target for the prediction, is taken as the experiment that ran continuously from the twentieth to twenty-first century using anthropogenic and natural forcings for the twentieth century and the A1B scenario for the twenty-first century. The other 29 members use a perturbation in the atmosphere at year 2000 and are run until 2061. Since the IPO has been recognized as a ...