Influence of Location, Population, and Climate on Building Damage and Fatalities due to Australian Bushfire: 1925–2009
Influence of Location, Population, and Climate on Building Damage and Fatalities due to Australian Bushfire: 1925–2009
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地点、人口和气候对澳大利亚丛林大火造成的建筑损坏和死亡的影响：1925 年至 2009 年
DOI：
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Haynes
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Crompton;J. McAneney;Keping Chen;R. Pielke;K. Haynes
摘要本研究以2009年维多利亚州黑色星期六火灾为背景，重新评估了自1925年以来澳大利亚野火造成的建筑物损坏和生命损失的历史，在这场火灾中，173人丧生，2298所房屋沿着许多其他建筑物被毁。对历史记录进行标准化，以估计在2008/09年社会条件下发生的事件的建筑物损坏和死亡人数。归一化的建筑物损坏与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动和印度洋偶极子现象之间存在联系，但没有明显证据表明归一化数据受到温室气体排放造成的气候变化的影响。2009年黑色星期六火灾在正常死亡人数方面排名第二，在正常建筑损坏方面排名第四。公共安全问题是，在标准化建筑物损坏最高的10年中，2008/09年火灾季节排名第三，仅次于1925/26年和1938/39年季节。
Abstract This study reevaluates the history of building damage and loss of life due to bushfire (wildfire) in Australia since 1925 in light of the 2009 Black Saturday fires in Victoria in which 173 people lost their lives and 2298 homes were destroyed along with many other structures. Historical records are normalized to estimate building damage and fatalities had events occurred under the societal conditions of 2008/09. There are relationships between normalized building damage and the El Nino–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole phenomena, but there is no discernable evidence that the normalized data are being influenced by climatic change due to the emission of greenhouse gases. The 2009 Black Saturday fires rank second in terms of normalized fatalities and fourth in terms of normalized building damage. The public safety concern is that, of the 10 years with the highest normalized building damage, the 2008/09 bushfire season ranks third, behind the 1925/26 and 1938/39 seasons, in terms of the r...