Financial Crisis and Recovery: Learning-based Liquidity Preference Fluctuations
Financial Crisis and Recovery: Learning-based Liquidity Preference Fluctuations
复制标题
金融危机与复苏：基于学习的流动性偏好波动
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Yoshiyasu Ono
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ryo Horii;Yoshiyasu Ono
本文探讨了人们学习行为导致流动性偏好波动的机制。%关于流动性冲击的频率。当观察到金融冲击时，他们理性地更新自己的信念，使再次遭遇金融冲击的主观概率更高，立即提高流动性偏好，减少消费。在此之后，随着一段无冲击时期的持续，他们的主观概率逐渐降低，流动性偏好逐渐降低，消费逐渐增加。特别是，当连续多次观察到冲击时，恢复首先是缓慢的，因为人们不容易改变悲观的看法，然后逐渐加速，最终随着他们变得完全乐观而放缓。
This paper examines a mechanism of liquidity-preference fluctuations caused by people's learning behavior. % about the frequency of a liquidity shock. When observing a financial shock, they rationally update their belief so that the subjective probability of encountering it again is higher, immediately raise liquidity preference and reduce consumption. As a period without the shock lasts after that, they gradually decrease the subjective probability, lower liquidity preference and increase consumption. Particularly, when the shock is observed many times in succession, recovery is first slow because people do not easily change their pessimistic view, then gradually accelerates, and eventually slows down as they become fully optimistic.