Potential impacts of mercury released from thawing permafrost
Potential impacts of mercury released from thawing permafrost
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-020-18398-5
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发表时间：
2020-09-16
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Sunderland, Elsie M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Schaefer, Kevin;Elshorbany, Yasin;Sunderland, Elsie M.
汞（Hg）是一种天然存在的元素，与有机物结合，当转化为甲基汞时，是一种强效的神经毒物。在这里，我们使用一个机制模型估算了在低温室气体排放和高温室气体排放情景下永久冻土融化后汞的潜在未来释放。到2200年，高排放情景显示永久冻土每年向大气排放的汞与目前全球人为排放相当。到2100年，育空河的模拟汞浓度在低排放情景下增加了14%，在高排放情景下增加了一倍。到2300年，鱼类汞浓度不会超过美国环境保护局低排放情景的指导方针，但对于高排放情景，育空河中的鱼类到2050年将超过环境保护局的指导方针。我们的研究结果表明，低排放情景对水和鱼类中汞浓度的影响最小，而高排放情景对汞浓度的影响很大。永久冻土锁住了地球上最大的汞库，但气候变暖威胁着这些系统的融化。在这里，作者使用模型来表明，无限制的化石燃料燃烧将大大增加释放到未来生态系统中的汞量。
Mercury (Hg) is a naturally occurring element that bonds with organic matter and, when converted to methylmercury, is a potent neurotoxicant. Here we estimate potential future releases of Hg from thawing permafrost for low and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios using a mechanistic model. By 2200, the high emissions scenario shows annual permafrost Hg emissions to the atmosphere comparable to current global anthropogenic emissions. By 2100, simulated Hg concentrations in the Yukon River increase by 14% for the low emissions scenario, but double for the high emissions scenario. Fish Hg concentrations do not exceed United States Environmental Protection Agency guidelines for the low emissions scenario by 2300, but for the high emissions scenario, fish in the Yukon River exceed EPA guidelines by 2050. Our results indicate minimal impacts to Hg concentrations in water and fish for the low emissions scenario and high impacts for the high emissions scenario. Permafrost locks away the largest reservoir of mercury on the planet, but climate warming threatens to thaw these systems. Here the authors use models to show that unconstrained fossil fuel burning will dramatically increase the amount of mercury released into future ecosystems.