FAILURE PROBABILITY OF FLOOD DEFENCE STRUCTURES/ SYSTEMS IN RISK ANALYSIS FOR EXTREME STORM SURGES
FAILURE PROBABILITY OF FLOOD DEFENCE STRUCTURES/ SYSTEMS IN RISK ANALYSIS FOR EXTREME STORM SURGES
复制标题
极端风暴潮风险分析中防洪结构/系统的失效概率
DOI：
10.9753/icce.v32.management.13
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
H. Oumeraci
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Naulin;A. Kortenhaus;H. Oumeraci
极端的风暴潮可能导致防洪设施失灵，导致内陆地区严重洪灾和灾难性破坏。为了量化洪水风险，正在进行综合风险分析，其中一项任务是确定防洪设施的故障概率。本文报道了在极端风暴潮作用下防洪建筑物和系统的失效概率计算。此外，还简要介绍了对决口及决口发展的分析。失效概率和破坏模型的初步结果使用的例子，德国汉堡的河口城市地区。这些结果的背景下，综合风险分析方法的极端风暴潮，这是应用在一个正在进行的德国联合研究项目。
Extreme storm surges can cause failures of flood defences resulting in severe flooding of the hinterland and catastrophic damages. In order to quantify the risk of flooding an integrated risk analysis is being performed wherein one task is the determination of failure probabilities of flood defences. In this paper the failure probability calculations of flood defence structures and systems under the loading of extreme storm surges are reported. Moreover, the analysis of the breach and breach development is briefly introduced. Preliminary results of the failure probabilities and the breach modelling are presented using the example of the estuarine urban area of Hamburg, Germany. These results are put in context of an integrated risk analysis approach for extreme storm surges which is applied within an ongoing German joint research project.