Early adult outcomes of adolescent binge drinking: Person- and variable-centered analyses of binge drinking trajectories
Early adult outcomes of adolescent binge drinking: Person- and variable-centered analyses of binge drinking trajectories
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DOI：
10.1097/00000374-200006000-00021
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发表时间：
2000-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Catalano, RF
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hill, KG;White, HR;Catalano, RF
背景：许多关于酗酒后果的研究采用了以变量为中心的方法，这可能掩盖了不同的发展轨迹。最近的研究报告了在年轻的成年期不同的酗酒轨迹。然而，对酗酒的发展轨迹的分析还没有对一个重要的饮酒发展时期：青春期进行检查。本研究的目的是通过结合以人为中心和以变量为中心的方法来检查青少年酗酒的结果。方法：数据来自西雅图社会发展项目，这是一个种族多样、性别平衡的样本（n = 808），从10岁到21岁进行前瞻性随访。采用半参数组为基础的模型来确定青少年酗酒轨迹的组。使用逻辑回归来检验轨迹组在考虑人口统计学、儿童期测量和青少年药物使用后预测年轻人结局的效果。结果：确定了青春期酗酒的四种不同轨迹：早期高潮、增加、晚起和不酗酒。在控制了人口统计学特征、结果的早期代理测量和青少年吸毒后，这些轨迹显著地预测了成年期的积极和消极结果。结论：与单独采用以变量为中心的方法相比，这种以人为中心和以变量为中心的综合方法提供了更多关于酗酒特定模式影响的信息。
Background: Many studies of the consequences of binge drinking take a variable-centered approach that may mask developmentally different trajectories. Recent studies have reported qualitatively different binge drinking trajectories in young adulthood. However, analyses of developmental trajectories of binge drinking have not been examined for an important period of drinking development: adolescence. The purpose of this study was to examine young adult outcomes of adolescent binge drinking using an approach that combines person-centered and variable-centered methods.Methods: Data were from the Seattle Social Development Project, an ethnically diverse, gender balanced sample (n = 808) followed prospectively from age 10 to age 21. Semiparametric group-based modeling was used to determine groups of binge drinking trajectories in adolescence. Logistic regression was used to examine how well the trajectory groups predicted young adult outcomes after demographics, childhood measures, and adolescent drug use were considered.Results: Four distinct trajectories of binge drinking during adolescence were identified: Early Highs, increasers, Late Onsetters, and Nonbingers. These trajectories significantly predicted positive and negative outcomes in adulthood after controlling for demographic characteristics, early proxy measures of the outcome, and adolescent drug use.Conclusions: This integrated person- and variable-centered approach provides more information about the effects of specific patterns of binge drinking than studies that employ variable-centered methods alone.