Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020
Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020
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DOI：
10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.4.2000058
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发表时间：
2020-01-30
期刊：
影响因子：
19
通讯作者：
Althaus, Christian L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Riou, Julien;Althaus, Christian L.
自2019年12月以来，中国一直在经历新型冠状病毒（2019-nCoV）的大规模爆发，该病毒可导致呼吸道疾病和严重肺炎。我们估计2019-nCoV的基本繁殖数Ro约为2.2（90%高密度区间：1.4-3.8），表明存在持续的人传人的潜力。传播特征似乎与严重急性呼吸道综合征相关冠状病毒（SARS-CoV）和大流行性流感具有相似的程度，表明存在全球传播的风险。
Since December 2019, China has been experiencing a large outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) which can cause respiratory disease and severe pneumonia. We estimated the basic reproduction number Ro of 2019-nCoV to be around 2.2 (90% high density interval: 1.4-3.8), indicating the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission. Transmission characteristics appear to be of similar magnitude to severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and pandemic influenza, indicating a risk of global spread.