Sensitivity of 21st century sea level to ocean-induced thinning of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica
Sensitivity of 21st century sea level to ocean-induced thinning of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica
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DOI：
10.1029/2010gl044819
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发表时间：
2010-10-21
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Holland, David M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Joughin, Ian;Smith, Benjamin E.;Holland, David M.
南极洲的松岛冰川（PIG）正在迅速失去质量，这支持了它可能在21世纪世纪海平面上升中发挥重要作用的论点。然而，根据理论和计算模型，这座冰川对海平面的定量贡献却知之甚少。我们已经开发了一个流域规模的冰川学模型来研究PIG的敏感性，一系列的环境强迫。虽然海洋融化可能在最近的变薄和退缩中发挥了主导作用，但我们发现，20世纪90年代具有扩展冰原的特定接地线几何形状使其容易受到这种强迫。我们的模型进一步表明，虽然地面线撤退的速度应该很快就会减少，但冰川的质量损失可能会继续以类似于目前的速度，或从现在开始适度升高。虽然大量的，我们的模型推导出的最大速率为2.7厘米/世纪是相当小的比以前的海洋学推导出的海平面贡献的界限。引文：Joughin，I.，B。E. Smith和D. M.荷兰（2010年），21世纪世纪海平面对南极洲松岛冰川海洋致薄的敏感性，地球物理学。保留信函：37，L20502，doi：10.1029/2010GL044819。
Pine Island Glacier (PIG), Antarctica, is rapidly losing mass, supporting arguments that it may play a major role in 21st century sea-level rise. Yet this glacier's quantitative contribution to sea level based on theoretical and computational models is poorly known. We have developed a basin-scale glaciological model to examine the sensitivity of PIG to a range of environmental forcings. While oceanic melt likely played the leading role in recent thinning and retreat, we find that the particular grounding-line geometry with an extended ice plain in the 1990s made it susceptible to such forcing. Our model further indicates that while the rate of grounding-line retreat should diminish soon, the glacier's mass loss may continue at rates similar to, or moderately elevated from, the present. While substantial, our model-derived maximum rate of 2.7 cm/century is considerably smaller than previous heuristically-derived bounds on the sea-level contribution. Citation: Joughin, I., B. E. Smith, and D. M. Holland (2010), Sensitivity of 21st century sea level to ocean-induced thinning of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20502, doi: 10.1029/2010GL044819.