Assessment of air quality benefits from national air pollution control policies in China. Part II: Evaluation of air quality predictions and air quality benefits assessment
Assessment of air quality benefits from national air pollution control policies in China. Part II: Evaluation of air quality predictions and air quality benefits assessment
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DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.05.058
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发表时间：
2010-09
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Litao Wang;C. Jang;Yang Zhang;Kai Wang;Qiang Zhang;D. Streets;J. Fu;Y. Lei;Jeremy J. Schreifels-Jeremy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Litao Wang;C. Jang;Yang Zhang;Kai Wang;Qiang Zhang;D. Streets;J. Fu;Y. Lei;Jeremy J. Schreifels-Jeremy
在第一部分气象评估的基础上，第二部分介绍了美国环保署的S社区多尺度空气质量(MODEL-3/CMAQ)模式对2005年4个模拟月份的空气质量预报的统计评估。地面预报使用了中国环境保护部发布的31个省会城市的空气污染指数数据和清华大学(清华大学)单个地点的日细颗粒物(PM2.5，空气直径小于或等于2.5μm的颗粒物)观测数据。为了克服地面观测的不足，利用卫星数据评估柱状预测，包括对流层二氧化氮(NO2)柱丰度和气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)。结果表明，CMAQ对空气质量有较好的预报效果。对中国2010年的目标年二氧化硫和氮氧化物排放控制所带来的空气质量改善进行了评估。结果表明，排放控制可以带来显著的空气质量效益。据估计，2010年中国东部重污染地区的二氧化硫浓度将比2010年一切照旧的情况下下降30-60%。由于较低的SO2和硫酸盐浓度，年PM2.5也可以下降3-15μgm−3(4-25%)。如果对NOx排放实施类似的控制，估计与2010年BAU情景相比，NOx浓度将下降30%-60%。PM2.5的年平均浓度也将下降2-14μgm−3(3-12%)。此外，预计中国北部臭氧(O3)未达标地区的数量将大大减少，夏季臭氧最大1小时平均浓度将减少8-30 ppb。
Following the meteorological evaluation in Part I, this Part II paper presents the statistical evaluation of air quality predictions by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA)’s Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (Models-3/CMAQ) model for the four simulated months in the base year 2005. The surface predictions were evaluated using the Air Pollution Index (API) data published by the China Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) for 31 capital cities and daily fine particulate matter (PM2.5, particles with aerodiameter less than or equal to 2.5μm) observations of an individual site in Tsinghua University (THU). To overcome the shortage in surface observations, satellite data are used to assess the column predictions including tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) column abundance and aerosol optical depth (AOD). The result shows that CMAQ gives reasonably good predictions for the air quality. The air quality improvement that would result from the targeted sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emission controls in China were assessed for the objective year 2010. The results show that the emission controls can lead to significant air quality benefits. SO2concentrations in highly polluted areas of East China in 2010 are estimated to be decreased by 30–60% compared to the levels in the 2010 Business-As-Usual (BAU) case. The annual PM2.5can also decline by 3–15μgm−3(4–25%) due to the lower SO2and sulfate concentrations. If similar controls are implemented for NOxemissions, NOxconcentrations are estimated to decrease by 30–60% as compared with the 2010 BAU scenario. The annual mean PM2.5concentrations will also decline by 2–14μgm−3(3–12%). In addition, the number of ozone (O3) non-attainment areas in the northern China is projected to be much lower, with the maximum 1-h average O3concentrations in the summer reduced by 8–30ppb.