The costs of agricultural adaptation to climate change
The costs of agricultural adaptation to climate change
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2010-08
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通讯作者：
G. Nelson;M. Rosegrant;J. Koo;R. Robertson;T. Sulser;T. Zhu;C. Ringler;A. Palazzo;S. Msangi;M. Batka;M. Magalhaes;R. Valmonte-Santos;M. Ewing;David R. Lee
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作者：
G. Nelson;M. Rosegrant;J. Koo;R. Robertson;T. Sulser;T. Zhu;C. Ringler;A. Palazzo;S. Msangi;M. Batka;M. Magalhaes;R. Valmonte-Santos;M. Ewing;David R. Lee
气候变化将对农业产生巨大但仍不确定的影响。在本报告中，作者通过对农业生产、价格和贸易的影响，估计了对人类福祉的影响。两个指标提供了衡量标准，以评估对人类福祉的影响人均卡路里消费和儿童营养不良计数。作者使用这些指标来评估三种类型的投资农业研究，农村道路，灌溉基础设施和效率提高的适应成本。为了对气候变化模拟中固有的不确定性提供一些概念，使用政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告（IPCC et al.，2007年）为建模工作提供气候输入。模拟气候变化对农业影响的挑战来自于市场、生态系统和人类行为运作过程的广泛性质。分析框架集成了从宏观到微观，从经济学驱动的过程到本质上是生物学的过程的建模组件。本报告讨论了建模方法和使用的数据。报告第二部分提供了分析结果。附件提供了更多的技术细节。
Climate change will have large, but still uncertain, effects on agriculture. In this report the authors provide estimates of the impacts on human well-being through effects on agricultural production, prices, and trade. Two indicators provide the metrics to assess the impacts on human well-being per capita calorie consumption and child malnutrition count. The authors use these metrics to assess the costs of adaptation with three types of investment agricultural research, rural roads, and irrigation infrastructure and efficiency improvement. To provide some idea of the uncertainties inherent in the climate change simulations, two general circulation models (GCMs) using the A2 SRES scenario from the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC et al., 2007) provide the climate inputs to the modeling work. The challenge of modeling climate change impacts in agriculture arises in the wide ranging nature of processes that underlie the working of markets, ecosystems, and human behavior. Analytical framework integrates modeling components that range from the macro to the micro and from processes that are driven by economics to those that are essentially biological in nature. This report with a discussion of the modeling methodology and data used. The second part of the report provides the results of the analysis. An annex provides additional technical details.