Forecasting the Future of Cardiovascular Disease in the United States A Policy Statement From the American Heart Association
Forecasting the Future of Cardiovascular Disease in the United States A Policy Statement From the American Heart Association
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DOI：
10.1161/cir.0b013e31820a55f5
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发表时间：
2011-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
37.8
通讯作者：
Woo, Y. Joseph
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Heidenreich, Paul A.;Trogdon, Justin G.;Woo, Y. Joseph
背景——心血管疾病（CVD）是美国死亡的主要原因，占全国卫生支出的17%。随着人口老龄化，这些费用预计将大幅增加。方法和结果：为了为未来的心血管护理需求做准备，美国心脏协会开发了一种方法来预测2010年至2030年高血压、冠心病、心力衰竭、中风和所有其他心血管疾病的未来护理成本。这种方法避免了多重心血管疾病患者费用的重复计算。到2030年，预计40.5%的美国人口将患有某种形式的心血管疾病。2010年至2030年期间，心血管疾病的实际直接医疗总费用（2008年美元）预计将增加两倍，从2730亿美元增至8180亿美元。所有心血管疾病的实际间接成本（由于生产力损失）估计将从2010年的1720亿美元增加到2030年的2760亿美元，增长61%。结论：这些发现表明心血管疾病患病率和费用预计将大幅增加。如果我们要限制心血管疾病日益增加的负担，就需要有效的预防战略。(循环。2011;123:933 - 944)。
Background-Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States and is responsible for 17% of national health expenditures. As the population ages, these costs are expected to increase substantially.Methods and Results-To prepare for future cardiovascular care needs, the American Heart Association developed methodology to project future costs of care for hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke, and all other CVD from 2010 to 2030. This methodology avoided double counting of costs for patients with multiple cardiovascular conditions. By 2030, 40.5% of the US population is projected to have some form of CVD. Between 2010 and 2030, real (2008$) total direct medical costs of CVD are projected to triple, from $273 billion to $818 billion. Real indirect costs (due to lost productivity) for all CVD are estimated to increase from $172 billion in 2010 to $276 billion in 2030, an increase of 61%.Conclusions-These findings indicate CVD prevalence and costs are projected to increase substantially. Effective prevention strategies are needed if we are to limit the growing burden of CVD. (Circulation. 2011;123:933-944.)