Spatially Representing Vulnerability to Extreme Rain Events Using Midwestern Farmers’ Objective and Perceived Attributes of Adaptive Capacity
Spatially Representing Vulnerability to Extreme Rain Events Using Midwestern Farmers’ Objective and Perceived Attributes of Adaptive Capacity
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利用中西部农民的目标和感知的适应能力属性在空间上表示极端降雨事件的脆弱性
DOI：
10.1111/risa.12943
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
J. Arbuckle
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Gardezi;J. Arbuckle
气候变化对中西部北部农业的潜在影响给美国和全球经济带来严重的经济和生态风险。在地方层面，农民处于应对气候变化影响的最前沿。因此，了解农民及其农场经营如何或多或少容易受到气候变化的影响非常重要。脆弱性指数是研究人员和从业者常用的工具，用于表示应对全球变化的脆弱性地理分布。大多数脆弱性评估使用政府机构收集的二手数据来衡量客观的适应能力。然而，其他关于人类行为的学术研究指出，社会文化和认知因素，例如风险认知和感知能力，对于调节人们的实际脆弱性至关重要。因此，传统评估可能会忽视人们对气候变化和极端天气事件的主观看法，以及人们在多大程度上准备采取必要措施应对和应对气候变化的负面影响。本文通过以下方式解决这一知识差距：（1）将感知的适应能力纳入脆弱性评估； （2）利用空间平滑将个体层面的脆弱性聚合到县域层面； (3)评估适应能力不同维度之间的关系，以检验感知能力是否应纳入脆弱性评估。结果表明，仅依赖客观衡量标准的脆弱性评估可能会忽略能力的重要社会认知维度。本文中提出的脆弱性指数和地图可以为改善该地区环境可持续性的参与策略提供信息。
Potential climate‐change‐related impacts to agriculture in the upper Midwest pose serious economic and ecological risks to the U.S. and the global economy. On a local level, farmers are at the forefront of responding to the impacts of climate change. Hence, it is important to understand how farmers and their farm operations may be more or less vulnerable to changes in the climate. A vulnerability index is a tool commonly used by researchers and practitioners to represent the geographical distribution of vulnerability in response to global change. Most vulnerability assessments measure objective adaptive capacity using secondary data collected by governmental agencies. However, other scholarship on human behavior has noted that sociocultural and cognitive factors, such as risk perceptions and perceived capacity, are consequential for modulating people's actual vulnerability. Thus, traditional assessments can potentially overlook people's subjective perceptions of changes in climate and extreme weather events and the extent to which people feel prepared to take necessary steps to cope with and respond to the negative effects of climate change. This article addresses this knowledge gap by: (1) incorporating perceived adaptive capacity into a vulnerability assessment; (2) using spatial smoothing to aggregate individual‐level vulnerabilities to the county level; and (3) evaluating the relationships among different dimensions of adaptive capacity to examine whether perceived capacity should be integrated into vulnerability assessments. The result suggests that vulnerability assessments that rely only on objective measures might miss important sociocognitive dimensions of capacity. Vulnerability indices and maps presented in this article can inform engagement strategies for improving environmental sustainability in the region.
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1615922114
发表时间：
2017-03-21
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Liang, Xin-Zhong;Wu, You;Kennedy, Jennifer A.
通讯作者：
Kennedy, Jennifer A.