Climate and socioeconomic influences on interannual variability of cholera in Nigeria
Climate and socioeconomic influences on interannual variability of cholera in Nigeria
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DOI：
10.1016/j.healthplace.2015.04.006
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发表时间：
2015-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Abdussalam, Auwal F.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Leckebusch, Gregor C.;Abdussalam, Auwal F.
霍乱是尼日利亚最重要的气候敏感性疾病之一，由于其致命性和地方性，对公共卫生构成威胁。本研究旨在调查气象和社会经济因素对尼日利亚霍乱发病率和死亡率时空变异的影响。逐步多元回归和广义添加剂模型拟合为个别国家以及三组国家的年降水量的基础上。对不同的气象变量进行了分析，同时考虑到可能加剧脆弱性的社会经济因素（如绝对贫困、成人识字率、获得管道供水）。结果量化了气候和社会经济变量在解释疾病发病率和死亡率的空间和时间变异性方面的影响。揭示了不同因素的区域重要性，这将使人们进一步了解疾病的动态。此外，交叉验证的模型表明疾病预测的可能性很大，这将有助于当局采取有效的控制措施，这些措施取决于预防和/或有效的应对措施。(C)2015作者由Elsevier Ltd.发布。这是CC BY-NC-ND许可下的开放获取文章。
Cholera is one of the most important climate sensitive diseases in Nigeria that pose a threat to public health because of its fatality and endemic nature. This study aims to investigate the influences of meteorological and socioeconomic factors on the spatiotemporal variability of cholera morbidity and mortality in Nigeria. Stepwise multiple regression and generalised additive models were fitted for individual states as well as for three groups of the states based on annual precipitation. Different meteorological variables were analysed, taking into account socioeconomic factors that are potentially enhancing vulnerability (e.g. absolute poverty, adult literacy, access to pipe borne water). Results quantify the influence of both climate and socioeconomic variables in explaining the spatial and temporal variability of the disease incidence and mortality. Regional importance of different factors is revealed, which will allow further insight into the disease dynamics. Additionally, cross validated models suggest a strong possibility of disease prediction, which will help authorities to put effective control measures in place which depend on prevention, and or efficient response. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license.