The impact of obesity on the rise in esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence: estimates from a disease simulation model.
The impact of obesity on the rise in esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence: estimates from a disease simulation model.
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肥胖对食管腺癌发病率上升的影响：疾病模拟模型的估计。
DOI：
10.1158/1055-9965.epi-11-0547
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Hur,Chin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kong,ChungYin;Nattinger,KevinJ;Hayeck,TristanJ;Omer,ZehraB;Wang,YClaire;Spechler,StuartJ;McMahon,PamelaM;Gazelle,GScott;Hur,Chin
背景：自20世纪70年代以来，美国食管腺癌(EAC)的发病率出现了令人震惊的、原因不明的增加。肥胖症的同时增加导致一些人认为这两种趋势之间存在联系。我们探讨了这种关系的程度。方法：使用之前在美国验证的白人男性疾病模拟模型，我们估计了1973-2005年间EAC的发病率，假设肥胖患病率不变，人口进展率与20世纪70年代初一致。只引入观察到的、不断上升的肥胖率，我们计算了肥胖症引起的增量发病率。我们将这些数据与国家癌症研究所监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)登记中的EAC发病率数据进行比较，以确定肥胖对EAC发病率上升的影响。结果：使用恒定的肥胖率，我们预计1973年至2005年期间EAC病例总数为30555例，仅2005年就有1151例。结合观察到的肥胖趋势，2005年累积的EAC为35,767例，EAC为1,608例。根据SEER数据得出的估计显示，2005年累计有111,223个病例和7,173个病例。结论：利用已发表的肥胖个体EAC的OR，我们发现EAC发病率的上升只有一小部分可归因于肥胖的长期趋势。影响：EAC流行的其他因素单独或联合应作为EAC流行的原因进行探讨。
Background:The United States has experienced an alarming and unexplained increase in the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) since the 1970s. A concurrent increase in obesity has led some to suggest a relationship between the two trends. We explore the extent of this relationship.Methods:Using a previously validated disease simulation model of white males in the United States, we estimated EAC incidence 1973 to 2005 given constant obesity prevalence and low population progression rates consistent with the early 1970s. Introducing only the observed, rising obesity prevalence, we calculated the incremental incidence caused by obesity. We compared these with EAC incidence data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry to determine obesity's contribution to the rise therein. Incidences were converted to absolute numbers of cases using U.S. population data.Results:Using constant obesity prevalence, we projected a total of 30,555 EAC cases cumulatively over 1973 to 2005 and 1,151 in 2005 alone. Incorporating the observed obesity trend resulted in 35,767 cumulative EACs and 1,608 in 2005. Estimates derived from SEER data showed 111,223 cumulative and 7,173 cases in 2005. We conclude that the rise in obesity accounted for 6.5% of the increase in EAC cases that occurred from 1973 to 2005 and 7.6% in the year 2005.Conclusion:Using published OR for EAC among obese individuals, we found that only a small percentage of the rise in EAC incidence is attributable to secular trends in obesity.Impact:Other factors, alone and in combination, should be explored as causes of the EAC epidemic.Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 20(11); 2450–6. ©2011 AACR.