Probabilistic Verification of Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks
Probabilistic Verification of Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks
复制标题
风暴预报中心对流展望的概率验证
DOI：
10.1175/waf-d-17-0104.1
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
R. Schumacher
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gregory R. Herman;E. Nielsen;R. Schumacher
将风暴预报中心（SPC）8年的第1天和4.5年的第2-3天概率对流展望转换为横跨美国大陆（CONUS）的概率网格。这些结果，然后使用标准的概率预测指标，包括布里尔技能得分和可靠性图进行评估。预测以两种不同的方式划分网格：一种是采用高分辨率网格，在概率等值线之间进行插值;另一种是采用80公里间隔的网格，不进行插值。总体而言，最高的技能被发现为严重的风预测和最低的技能观察到龙卷风;显著严重的标准，观察到相反的差异，最高的预测技能显著龙卷风和大约没有整体预测技能显著的强风。最高的气候相对技能通常在中部和北方大平原和中西部观察到，最低的，往往是负技能在西部。
AbstractEight years’ worth of day 1 and 4.5 years’ worth of day 2–3 probabilistic convective outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) are converted to probability grids spanning the continental United States (CONUS). These results are then evaluated using standard probabilistic forecast metrics including the Brier skill score and reliability diagrams. Forecasts are gridded in two different ways: one with a high-resolution grid and interpolation between probability contours and another on an 80-km-spaced grid without interpolation. Overall, the highest skill is found for severe wind forecasts and the lowest skill is observed for tornadoes; for significant severe criteria, the opposite discrepancy is observed, with highest forecast skill for significant tornadoes and approximately no overall forecast skill for significant severe winds. Highest climatology-relative skill is generally observed over the central and northern Great Plains and Midwest, with the lowest—and often negative—skill seen in the W...