Spatio-temporal change of urban-rural equalized development patterns in China and its driving factors
Spatio-temporal change of urban-rural equalized development patterns in China and its driving factors
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中国城乡均衡发展格局时空变化及其驱动因素
DOI：
10.1016/j.jrurstud.2013.08.004
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发表时间：
2013-10-01
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
Chen, Yufu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, Yansui;Lu, Shasha;Chen, Yufu
城乡统筹发展不仅具有重要的理论意义，而且是我国城乡协调发展面临的战略挑战。本文在中国城乡转型的背景下，提出了一种创新的农村经济发展理论。基于1996-2009年中国31个省（区、市）的数据，采用主成分分析、马尔可夫链模型和探索性空间数据分析模型，分析了城乡均衡发展的时空格局、变化规律和驱动因素。研究发现，在研究期内，中国大学生体育呈现出明显的“俱乐部同质化”趋势。然而，自2003年以来，整个中国的URED同质化有所减弱。此外，在1996-2003年期间，URED表现出明显的“两极分化”地理特征。高URED水平的空间单元主要集中在中国东部沿海地区，低URED水平的空间单元主要集中在中国中西部地区。2003年以后，这种区域发展的空间极化结构被打破，区域发展的空间差异有所缩小。政策与制度结构、经济增长和城市化是影响中国城乡发展空间格局及其变化的主要驱动因素。本研究可为我国统筹城乡发展和新农村建设提供科学决策参考。(C)2013爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
The urban-rural equalized development is not only significant theoretically, but also a strategic challenge facing the coordinated development of urban and rural China. In this paper we put forward an innovative theory of URED against the background of China's urban-rural transformation. The spatio-temporal pattern, its change and driving factors of urban-rural equalized development during 1996-2009 were analyzed using principal component analysis, the Markov chain model and exploratory spatial data analysis model based on the data for 31 Chinese provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities). It is found that during the study period URED exhibited an obvious tendency of "club homogenization" in China. However, since 2003 the homogenization of the URED for entire China has weakened. Moreover, URED showed a significant geographic characteristic of "polarization" during 1996-2003. Namely, the spatial units of a high URED level were concentrated in eastern China near the coast, and the spatial units of a low URED level were located mainly in central and western China. However, this spatial polarized structure of URED was destroyed since 2003, and the spatial disparity at the provincial level has decreased. Finally, it is concluded that policies and institutional structure, economic growth and urbanization were the main driving factors of the identified URED spatio-temporal pattern and its change in China. This study may serve as a scientific reference regarding decision-making in coordinating urban and rural development and in constructing the new countryside of China. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.