Grapevine bud break prediction for cool winter climates
Grapevine bud break prediction for cool winter climates
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凉爽冬季气候下的葡萄花蕾预测
DOI：
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发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
C. Nendel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Nendel
葡萄（葡萄属Vinifera L.）栽培变种Riesling和Müller-Thurgau）在欧洲商业葡萄生产的北方边界沿着的13个地点进行的研究表明，对于所有被调查的地点，如果特别确定热量单位积累的开始日期，则可以改进用于萌芽预测的热量总和方法。使用方差系数作为标准，可以确定每个地点的全局最小值，标记最佳开始日期。此外，它表明，应用的阈值温度的热量总和法并没有导致一个改进的预测芽的断裂。利用地点特异性参数，可以预测葡萄萌芽的准确度为± 2.5天。使用平均参数，预测精度降低到± 4.5天，突出了热总和法对行驶温度数据的质量和代表性的敏感性。
Statistical analysis of bud break data for grapevine (Vitis vinifera L. cvs. Riesling and Müller-Thurgau) at 13 sites along the northern boundary of commercial grapevine production in Europe revealed that, for all investigated sites, the heat summation method for bud break prediction can be improved if the starting date for the accumulation of heat units is specifically determined. Using the coefficient of variance as a criterion, a global minimum for each site can be identified, marking the optimum starting date. Furthermore, it was shown that the application of a threshold temperature for the heat summation method does not lead to an improved prediction of bud break. Using site-specific parameters, bud break of grapevine can be predicted with an accuracy of ± 2.5 days. Using average parameters, the prediction accuracy is reduced to ± 4.5 days, highlighting the sensitivity of the heat summation method to the quality and the representativeness of the driving temperature data.