Multiscale model for pedestrian and infection dynamics during air travel
Multiscale model for pedestrian and infection dynamics during air travel
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DOI：
10.1103/physreve.95.052320
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发表时间：
2017-05-31
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Srinivasan, Ashok
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Namilae, Sirish;Derjany, Pierrot;Srinivasan, Ashok
在本文中，我们开发了一个多尺度模型相结合的社会力量为基础的行人运动的人口水平随机感染传播动力学框架。然后，该模型被应用于研究飞机内的感染传播和埃博拉病毒通过偶然接触的传播。流行病期间对航空旅行的严格限制，例如2014年西非埃博拉疫情期间，造成了相当大的经济和人力成本。我们使用计算模型来评估飞机内乘客流动和航空旅行政策对传染病地理空间传播的影响。我们发现，登机政策的航空公司是更关键的感染传播相比，下飞机的政策。在两个区段中登机导致比当前遵循的具有多个区段的策略更少的感染。此外，我们发现小型商用飞机在减少航班中新感染人数方面比大型飞机更好。汇总结果表明，通过这些网络模型预测的乘客流动策略和飞机规模可能对2014年埃博拉疫情等事件产生重大影响。这里制定的方法是通用的，可以随时修改，以纳入其他直接传播的传染病爆发的影响。
In this paper we develop a multiscale model combining social-force-based pedestrian movement with a population level stochastic infection transmission dynamics framework. The model is then applied to study the infection transmission within airplanes and the transmission of the Ebola virus through casual contacts. Drastic limitations on air-travel during epidemics, such as during the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, carry considerable economic and human costs. We use the computational model to evaluate the effects of passenger movement within airplanes and air-travel policies on the geospatial spread of infectious diseases. We find that boarding policy by an airline is more critical for infection propagation compared to deplaning policy. Enplaning in two sections resulted in fewer infections than the currently followed strategy with multiple zones. In addition, we found that small commercial airplanes are better than larger ones at reducing the number of new infections in a flight. Aggregated results indicate that passenger movement strategies and airplane size predicted through these network models can have significant impact on an event like the 2014 Ebola epidemic. The methodology developed here is generic and can be readily modified to incorporate the impact from the outbreak of other directly transmitted infectious diseases.