The Benefits of Risk Factor Prevention in Americans Aged 51 Years and Older
The Benefits of Risk Factor Prevention in Americans Aged 51 Years and Older
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DOI：
10.2105/ajph.2009.172627
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发表时间：
2009-11-01
影响因子：
12.7
通讯作者：
Rowe, John W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Goldman, Dana P.;Zheng, Yuhui;Rowe, John W.
目标。我们评估了减少美国老年人常见危险因素的潜在健康和经济效益。方法。动态模拟模型跟踪了全国 51 岁和 52 岁人群，以预测他们在糖尿病、高血压、肥胖和吸烟预防场景中的健康和医疗支出。结果。成功治疗 51 岁或 52 岁肥胖症患者的寿命将延长 0.85 年；高血压2.05年；糖尿病为 3.17 年。 51岁或52岁的人戒烟会增加3.44岁。尽管寿命更长，但那些成功治疗肥胖、高血压或糖尿病的人终生医疗支出（不包括预防费用）将会较低。戒烟会导致终生支出增加。我们使用生命年的传统估值来计算，成功治疗的人均价值为 198018 美元（糖尿病）、137964 美元（高血压）、118946 美元（吸烟）和 51750 美元（肥胖）。结论。有效的预防可以极大地改善美国老年人的健康，尽管寿命有所延长，但这种好处可以在很少或根本不需要额外的终生医疗支出的情况下实现。 （美国公共卫生杂志。2009；99：2096-2101。doi：10.2105/AJPH.2009.172627）
Objectives. We assessed the potential health and economic benefits of reducing common risk factors in older Americans.Methods. A dynamic simulation model tracked a national cohort of persons 51 and 52 years of age to project their health and medical spending in prevention scenarios for diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and smoking.Results. The gain in life span from successful treatment of a person aged 51 or 52 years for obesity would be 0.85 years; for hypertension, 2.05 years; and for diabetes, 3.17 years. A 51- or 52-year-old person who quit smoking would gain 3.44 years. Despite living longer, those successfully treated for obesity, hypertension, or diabetes would have lower lifetime medical spending, exclusive of prevention costs. Smoking cessation would lead to increased lifetime spending. We used traditional valuations for a life-year to calculate that successful treatments would be worth, per capita, $198018 (diabetes), $137964 (hypertension), $118946 (smoking), and $51750 (obesity).Conclusions. Effective prevention could substantially improve the health of older Americans, and-despite increases in longevity-such benefits could be achieved with little or no additional lifetime medical spending. (Am J Public Health. 2009;99:2096-2101. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2009.172627)