Peace Initiatives and Public Opinion: The Domestic Context of Conflict Resolution
Peace Initiatives and Public Opinion: The Domestic Context of Conflict Resolution
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和平倡议与舆论：解决冲突的国内背景
DOI：
10.1177/0022343397034002006
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发表时间：
1997
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Ben D. Mor
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ben D. Mor
解决持久竞争的和平倡议是在两个层面上发起的，外交政策的要求与国内政策的要求相互作用。维持长期冲突需要公众舆论的支持和动员，公众舆论在解决冲突中发挥着关键作用，特别是当政府偏好与多数人意见出现分歧时。本文使用战争倾向文献来定义公众舆论成为妥协的制约因素或触发因素的国内背景。在每种情况下，政府都必须权衡采取其首选行动方针的好处与因公众不满而失去职位的可能性。这种困境涉及三个参数：领导层与冲突相关的信念、对舆论的敏感性以及舆论结构。这些参数所假定的值及其配置构成了指导和平倡议领导层决策的国内条件。对以色列 1993 年《奥斯陆协议》决策的案例研究证明了理论分析的适用性和合理性。
Peace initiatives to resolve enduring rivalries are launched in a two-level setting, where foreign policy imperatives interact with domestic imperatives. Public opinion, the support and mobilization of which is required for sustaining an extended conflict, plays a critical role in its resolution, especially when government preferences diverge from majority opinion. This article uses the war-proneness literature to define the domestic context in which public opinion becomes a constraint on accommodation or a trigger for it. In each context, the government must weigh the benefits of pursuing its preferred course of action against the prospects of losing office as a result of public dissatisfaction. This dilemma involves three parameters: the conflict-related beliefs of the leadership, its sensitivity to public opinion, and the structure of public opinion. The values that these parameters assume, and their configuration, comprise the domestic conditions that govern leadership decisions on peace initiatives. A case study of Israeli decision-making on the 1993 Oslo Accord serves to demonstrate the applicability and plausibility of the theoretical analysis.