Evolutionary and Ecological Responses to Anthropogenic Climate Change
Evolutionary and Ecological Responses to Anthropogenic Climate Change
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DOI：
10.1104/pp.112.206219
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发表时间：
2012-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
7.4
通讯作者：
Mitchell-Olds, Thomas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Anderson, Jill T.;Panetta, Anne Marie;Mitchell-Olds, Thomas
使物种能够在不断变化的环境中坚持下来的策略，历史上分为生态(分布变化和表型可塑性)和进化(适应和基因流动)。然而，大多数物种可能需要依靠多种方法来减轻持续气候变化带来的灭绝风险。例如，气候时间变化的增加可能有利于具有适应性可塑性的基因类型。此外，即使能够通过迁徙追踪其喜好气候的物种也会遇到不同的非生物和生物条件；可塑性和/或适应可促进在新的地理范围内的建立和种群增长。在不断变化的世界中，适应、迁徙和可塑性对种群持久性的相对贡献可能取决于诸如世代时间、交配系统、扩散能力、选择的强度和方向、与生态相关的遗传变异的存在、性状之间的遗传关联程度以及适应的遗传结构等特征。适应会跟上快速的气候变化吗？在这里，我们提出了基于生态和进化理论的假设，讨论了实验方法，并回顾了调查生态和进化对当代气候变化反应的研究结果。我们的讨论集中在植物上，但由于迄今为止整合了进化论和生态学观点的出版物数量有限，我们在必要时借鉴了其他分类小组的意见。为了让物种在快速的人为气候变化中生存下来，它们必须改变它们的分布以跟踪偏好的条件(Angert等人，2011年；Chen等人，2011年)，通过可塑性调整它们的表型(Nicotra等人，2010年)，和/或适应新的压力(Aitken等人，2008年；Hoffmann和Sgró，2011年)。在大多数情况下，生态和进化战略的结合对于在受到生境碎片化、污染和入侵物种干扰的地貌中保持地方和区域的可持续性是必要的。例如，气候变化的增加(Battisti和Nayler，2009年)可能选择性地有利于表型可塑性(Crozier等人，2008年)，这反过来可能有助于进化的新颖性和适应(Moczek等人，2011年)。此外，由于气温升高，许多物种已经改变了它们的分布到更偏向极地和上坡的地区(Parmesan和Yohe，2003；Hickling等人，2006；Parmesan，2006；Lenoir等人，2008；Chen等人，2011)。迁徙种群无疑将遇到新的非生物和生物条件，需要通过可塑性和/或适应来适应不同的光周期、土壤特性、生长季节长度和改变的生物群落。基因流和种群混合可以通过将适应温暖或干旱的等位基因引入局部适应一系列气候和非气候变量的种群来促进适应。最后，气候变化的速度，再加上栖息地碎片化的影响，可能会超过许多物种跟踪它们目前适应的气候的能力(Davis和Shaw，2001)。这些物种必须适应或就地适应新的选择压力，否则将面临更高的灭绝概率(Aitken等人，2008年)。进化可以快速进行(Grant和Grant，2002；Hairston等人，2005；Franks等人，2007)，但我们对生态和进化过程在气候变化背景下的相互作用知之甚少。从理论上讲，适应可以与气候变化保持同步，只要遗传变异、个体适应能力和有效的种群规模--…
Strategies that enable species to persist in changing environments have historically been divided into ecological (distributional shifts and phenotypic plasticity) and evolutionary (adaptation and gene flow). However, most species will likely need to rely on a combination of approaches to mitigate extinction risks from ongoing climate change. For example, increased temporal variation in climate could favor genotypes with adaptive plasticity. Furthermore, even species capable of tracking their preferred climate via migration will encounter different abiotic and biotic conditions; plasticity and/or adaptation could facilitate establishment and population growth in new geographic ranges. The relative contributions of adaptation, migration, and plasticity to population persistence in a changing world will likely depend on characteristics such as generation time, mating system, dispersal capacity, the strength and direction of selection, the presence of ecologically relevant genetic variation, the extent of genetic correlations among traits, and the genetic architecture of adaptation. Will adaptation keep pace with rapid climate change? Here, we propose hypotheses based on ecological and evolutionary theory, discuss experimental approaches, and review results from studies that have investigated ecological and evolutionary responses to contemporary climate change. We focus our discussion on plants, but owing to the limited number of publications to date that integrate evolutionary and ecological perspectives, we draw from other taxonomic groups as necessary. For species to survive rapid anthropogenic climate change, they must shift their distributions to track preferred conditions (Angert et al., 2011; Chen et al., 2011), adjust their phenotypes via plasticity (Nicotra et al., 2010), and/or adapt to novel stresses (Aitken et al., 2008; Hoffmann and Sgrò, 2011). In most cases, a combination of ecological and evolutionary strategies will be necessary for local and regional persistence in landscapes disturbed by habitat fragmentation, pollution, and invasive species. For example, increased climatic variation (Battisti and Naylor, 2009) could selectively favor phenotypic plasticity (Crozier et al., 2008), which, in turn, could contribute to evolutionary novelty and adaptation (Moczek et al., 2011). Furthermore, many species have already altered their distributions to more poleward and upslope regions because of increasing temperatures (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003; Hickling et al., 2006; Parmesan, 2006; Lenoir et al., 2008; Chen et al., 2011). Migrating populations will undoubtedly encounter novel abiotic and biotic conditions and will need to adjust to different photoperiods, edaphic characteristics, growing season lengths, and altered biotic communities via plasticity and/or adaptation. Gene flow and population admixture could facilitate adaptation by introducing warm-or drought-adapted alleles into populations that are locally adapted to a suite of climatic and nonclimatic variables. Finally, the rate of climate change, combined with the effects of habitat fragmentation, could surpass many species' abilities to track the climate to which they are currently adapted (Davis and Shaw, 2001). Such species will necessarily have to acclimate or adapt in situ to novel selection pressures or face a heightened probability of extinction (Aitken et al., 2008). Evolution can proceed rapidly (Grant and Grant, 2002; Hairston et al., 2005; Franks et al., 2007), but we know little about the interplay of ecological and evolutionary processes in the context of climate change. Theoretically, adaptation could keep pace with climate change as long as genetic variation, individual fitness, and effective population sizes …