THE DEPENDENCE OF HURRICANE INTENSITY ON CLIMATE
THE DEPENDENCE OF HURRICANE INTENSITY ON CLIMATE
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DOI：
10.1038/326483a0
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发表时间：
1987-04-02
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
EMANUEL, KA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
EMANUEL, KA
热带气旋与地震一样，是造成生命和财产损失的主要地球物理原因1。因此，估计短期人为气候变化可能导致的热带气旋频率和强度的变化具有实际和科学意义2。本着这种精神，我们使用一个简单的卡诺循环模型来估计热带气旋的最大强度下，预计会导致大气CO2含量增加的温暖条件。根据大气环流模式预测的热带海洋8月平均状况，估计飓风的破坏潜力将增加40-50%，其中二氧化碳含量是目前的两倍。
Tropical cyclones rank with earthquakes as the major geophysical causes of loss of life and property1. It is therefore of practical as well as scientific interest to estimate the changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity that might result from short-term man-induced alterations of the climate2. In this spirit we use a simple Carnot cycle model to estimate the maximum intensity of tropical cyclones under the somewhat warmer conditions expected to result from increased atmospheric CO2content. Estimates based on August mean conditions over the tropical oceans predicted by a general circulation model with twice the present CO2content yield a 40–50% increase in the destructive potential of hurricanes.