Do migration networks worsen trade deficit? Evidence from the United States and Germany
Do migration networks worsen trade deficit? Evidence from the United States and Germany
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DOI：
10.1111/twec.13042
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发表时间：
2020-10
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Tomohara
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Tomohara
本研究探讨了货物（贸易）、人员（移民）和资本（FDI）的跨境流动如何全面互动。虽然以前的研究已经研究了这些因素的部分相互作用，如贸易-移民关系，但很少有人研究全球网络对贸易平衡的影响。利用双边贸易数据，我们的动态面板数据分析提供了双向移民网络（即移民和迁出）和商业网络（即流入和流出外国直接投资）的经验证据。分析表明，移徙网络效应并不确定，但因国家而异。美国（德国）的贸易逆差随着这些国家移民的增加而增加（减少）。对这两个国家来说，随着移民移居国外，贸易赤字减少。结果表明，接受移民不是贸易逆差的普遍原因。考虑到两国移民的来源地不同，两国的贸易平衡不仅受到移民数量的影响，而且还受到移民技能水平的影响。
This study investigates how cross‐border movements of goods (trade), people (migration) and capital (FDI) interact comprehensively. While previous studies have examined partial interactions of these factors, such as trade–immigration relationships, little work has been done to examine the effects of global networks on trade balance. Using bilateral trade data, our dynamic panel‐data analysis provides empirical evidence of bidirectional migration networks (i.e. immigration and emigration) and business networks (i.e. inward and outward FDI). The analysis shows that the migration network effect is not definitive but varies depending on countries. The trade deficit in the United States (Germany) increases (decreases) with an increase of immigrants in these countries. For both countries, the trade deficit decreases with emigrants moving abroad. The results imply that the acceptance of immigrants is not a universal cause of trade deficit. Considering that the origin of immigrants differs between the two countries, their respective trade balance is subject to the influence of not only the number of immigrants but also the immigrants' skill level.