Statistical procedures for developing earthquake damage fragility curves
Statistical procedures for developing earthquake damage fragility curves
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DOI：
10.1002/eqe.2522
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发表时间：
2015-07-25
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Burton, Henry
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lallemant, David;Kiremidjian, Anne;Burton, Henry
本文描述了开发地震损伤脆弱性函数的统计程序。尽管地震工程和风险评估文献中有大量的易损性曲线，但焦点通常集中在获得损坏数据的方法上（即，结构的分析），并且很少强调将脆弱性曲线拟合到该数据的过程。本文提供了一个综合的最常用的方法来拟合脆弱性曲线，并强调了一些显着的局限性。更新颖的方法描述参数脆弱性曲线的发展（广义线性模型和累积链接模型）和非参数曲线（广义加性模型和高斯核平滑）。每种方法的优点和缺点提供了广泛的讨论，以及使用经验和分析数据的例子。本文进一步提出了处理强度测量中的不确定性的方法，这是经验数据中常见的问题。最后，本文介绍了各种脆弱性模型之间的选择方法，根据用户定义的损失函数的预测误差的评价。版权所有（c）2015约翰威利父子有限公司
This paper describes statistical procedures for developing earthquake damage fragility functions. Although fragility curves abound in earthquake engineering and risk assessment literature, the focus has generally been on the methods for obtaining the damage data (i.e., the analysis of structures), and little emphasis is placed on the process for fitting fragility curves to this data. This paper provides a synthesis of the most commonly used methods for fitting fragility curves and highlights some of their significant limitations. More novel methods are described for parametric fragility curve development (generalized linear models and cumulative link models) and non-parametric curves (generalized additive model and Gaussian kernel smoothing). An extensive discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of each method is provided, as well as examples using both empirical and analytical data. The paper further proposes methods for treating the uncertainty in intensity measure, an issue common with empirical data. Finally, the paper describes approaches for choosing among various fragility models, based on an evaluation of prediction error for a user-defined loss function. Copyright (c) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.