Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.06.004
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发表时间：
2017-01-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Magne, Bertrand
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dellink, Rob;Chateau, Jean;Magne, Bertrand
需要以长期经济情景(最高可达2100年)为基础，探索应对包括气候变化在内的重大环境挑战可能出现的不同未来。鉴于其中涉及的高度不确定性，这种情景需要跨越一系列可能的增长轨迹。最近开发的共享社会经济路径(SSP)的故事情节为做出此类预测提供了基础。这篇论文描述了一种在国家基础上得出(人均)GDP趋势路径的一致方法。该方法以趋同进程为基础，强调长期经济增长的主要驱动力：人口、全要素生产率、物质资本、就业和人力资本，以及能源和化石燃料资源(特别是石油和天然气)。本文使用这种方法得出184个国家的国家经济增长预测。本文还考察了短期增长率估计对各国长期收入水平的影响。它通过将基于2011年短期预测的长期预测与基于2013年预测的预测进行比较来实现这一点。这突显了最近经济危机和短期事态发展的不确定性对长期增长趋势的影响。这些预测受到很大不确定性的影响，特别是在后几十年，而且忽视了狭隘经济框架之外的各种具体国家的经济增长驱动因素，如外部冲击、治理障碍和环境破坏带来的反馈。因此，应该以足够的谨慎来解释它们，而不是将其视为预测。(C)2015爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。
Long-term economic scenarios (up to 2100) are needed as a basis to explore possible different futures for major environmental challenges, including climate change. Given the high level of uncertainty involved, such scenarios would need to span a wide range of possible growth trajectories. The recently developed storylines of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) provide a basis for making such projections. This paper describes a consistent methodology to derive (per capita) GDP trend pathways on a country basis. The methodology is based on a convergence process and places emphasis on the key drivers of economic growth in the long run: population, total factor productivity, physical capital, employment and human capital, and energy and fossil fuel resources (specifically oil and gas). The paper uses this methodology to derive country-level economic growth projections for 184 countries. The paper also investigates the influence of short-term growth rate estimates on the long-term income levels in various countries. It does so by comparing long-term projections based on short-term forecasts from 2011 with the projections based on forecasts from 2013. This highlights the effects of the recent economic crisis and uncertainty in short term developments on longer term growth trends. The projections are subject to large uncertainties, particularly for the later decades, and disregard a wide range of country-specific drivers of economic growth that are outside the narrow economic framework, such as external shocks, governance-barriers and feedbacks from environmental damage. Hence, they should be interpreted with sufficient care and not be treated as predictions. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.