The Madden-Julian Oscillation and Boreal Winter Forecast Skill: An Analysis of NCEP CFSv2 Reforecasts
The Madden-Julian Oscillation and Boreal Winter Forecast Skill: An Analysis of NCEP CFSv2 Reforecasts
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Madden-Julian 振荡和北方冬季预报技巧：NCEP CFSv2 重新预报分析
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
L. Carvalho
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Charles Jones;Abheera Hazra;L. Carvalho
马登-朱利安振荡（MJO）是热带季节内变化的主要模态，是连接天气和气候的桥梁。由于MJO具有缓慢的向东传播和相对于天气变率的较长时间尺度，因此人们对探索MJO的可预测性及其对扩展范围天气预报的影响（即，2-4-周时间）。本研究探讨在北半球冬季，MJO对北方半球热带外天气预报技巧的影响。使用NCEP气候预报系统第2版（CFSv2）再预报（1999年11月1日至2010年3月31日）的几个45天的位势高度（500 hPa）预报。MJO的变异性表示为不同的振幅、持续时间和复发（即，主要事件和相继事件）以及它们对预报技巧的影响被分析并与非活动时段（即，空情况）。在一般情况下，在增强的MJO对流在西太平洋的预报技巧是系统性较高的。
AbstractThe Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the main mode of tropical intraseasonal variations and bridges weather and climate. Because the MJO has a slow eastward propagation and longer time scale relative to synoptic variability, significant interest exists in exploring the predictability of the MJO and its influence on extended-range weather forecasts (i.e., 2–4-week lead times). This study investigates the impact of the MJO on the forecast skill in Northern Hemisphere extratropics during boreal winter. Several 45-day forecasts of geopotential height (500 hPa) from NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) reforecasts are used (1 November–31 March 1999–2010). The variability of the MJO expressed as different amplitudes, durations, and recurrence (i.e., primary and successive events) and their influence on forecast skill is analyzed and compared against inactive periods (i.e., null cases). In general, forecast skill during enhanced MJO convection over the western Pacific is systematically higher...