Examining the predictive value of fertility preferences among Ghanaian women
Examining the predictive value of fertility preferences among Ghanaian women
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DOI：
10.4054/demres.2010.22.30
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发表时间：
2010-05-26
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Casterline, John B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kodzi, Ivy A.;Johnson, David R.;Casterline, John B.
尽管进行了广泛的研究，但对于先前陈述的生育偏好与随后的生育行为之间的对应程度仍然存在疑问。偏好不稳定是一个潜在破坏预测性的因素。此外，如果生育率的其他预测因素在很大程度上解释了生育率，那么偏好知识可能对解释或预测个人生育行为几乎没有贡献。在这项研究中，我们考察了个人生育偏好行为一致性研究的这些方面。使用前瞻性多波面板数据集，我们对每月受孕的可能性进行了建模，考虑了偏好的动态性质，并控制了不断变化的生殖生命周期因素和稳定的生育率社会经济背景预测因素。我们通过多产已婚加纳女性样本证明，生育偏好在预测受孕可能性的模型中保留了独立的预测能力。
Despite extensive research, doubts remain regarding the degree of correspondence between prior stated fertility preferences and subsequent fertility behavior. Preference instability is a factor that potentially undermines predictiveness. Furthermore, if other predictors of fertility substantially explain fertility, then knowledge of preferences may contribute little to explaining or predicting individual fertility behavior. In this study, we examined these aspects of the study of individual fertility preference-behavior consistency. Using a prospective multi-wave panel dataset, we modeled the monthly likelihood of conception, taking into account the dynamic nature of preferences, and controlling for changing reproductive life cycle factors and stable socioeconomic background predictors of fertility. We demonstrate from a sample of fecund married Ghanaian women that fertility preferences retain independent predictive power in the model predicting the likelihood of conception.