The Asian–Pacific Oscillation pattern in CMIP5 simulations of historical and future climate
The Asian–Pacific Oscillation pattern in CMIP5 simulations of historical and future climate
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.4668
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发表时间：
2016-12
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Botao Zhou
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作者：
Botao Zhou
利用耦合模式比对计划第五阶段（CMIP 5）的模拟结果，对33个耦合模式对夏季亚太涛动（APO）的模拟性能进行了评价，并对RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下APO的变化进行了预测。结果表明，大多数模式对夏季APO空间结构的气候平均态有较好的模拟能力，但有些模式对其长期趋势和年际变化的模拟能力较差。多模型集合平均（MME）通常优于单个模型。它不仅能较好地再现观测到的APO空间分布，而且能合理地捕捉到观测到的APO的负向变化趋势和年际变化。MME预测，在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下，到21世纪末，APO强度将下降。在2040年代前后，两种强迫情景下的预估变化开始出现较大差异，RCP8.5下的降幅大于RCP4.5下的降幅。在整个世纪的后半叶，APO除了强度比1950-2005年的平均气候有所减弱外，还将向东轻微移动。对于单个模型，大多数模型同意预测的APO强度下降变化的迹象，并且在RCP8.5情景下比RCP4.5情景下表现出更强的变化。
Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations, this article evaluated the performance of 33 coupled models in simulating the summer Asian–Pacific Oscillation (APO) pattern and projected its change under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results show that most of the individual models have good capacity to simulate the climate mean state of the spatial structure of the summer APO pattern, while some have poor skill in modelling its secular trend and interannual variability. The multimodel ensemble mean (MME) generally outperforms the individual models. It not only well reproduces the spatial distribution of the observed APO pattern, but also reasonably captures the observed negative trend and interannual variability of the APO. The MME projects a decrease in the APO intensity towards the end of 21st century under both the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 scenarios. Large differences in projected change under the two forcing scenarios start to emerge about in the 2040s, with larger decreasing under the RCP8.5 than that under the RCP4.5. Over the course of the second half of the 21st century, the APO pattern will shift eastward slightly in addition to the weakening in intensity as compared to the 1950–2005 mean climate. For the individual models, the majority of models agree on the sign of projected decreasing change in the APO intensity and also exhibit a stronger change under the RCP8.5 scenario than under the RCP4.5 scenario.