Time-Dependent Corrosion Growth Modeling Using Multiple ILI Data
Time-Dependent Corrosion Growth Modeling Using Multiple ILI Data
复制标题
使用多个 ILI 数据进行瞬态腐蚀增长建模
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Hong Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Shenwei Zhang;Wenxing Zhou;M. Al;S. Kariyawasam;Hong Wang
提出了一种基于非均匀伽马过程的油气管道腐蚀缺陷深度增长模型。增长模型中的所有参数被假定为是不确定的，这些参数的概率特性进行评估，使用分层贝叶斯方法，通过将缺陷信息报告的多个在线检查（ILI），以及这些参数的先验知识。在分析中考虑了与ILI工具相关的偏差和随机测量误差以及与不同ILI工具相关的测量误差之间的相关性。该模型的应用说明使用一个例子，涉及真实的ILI数据的管道，目前正在服务。结果表明，该模型在一般情况下可以预测腐蚀缺陷的增长合理。该模型可用于促进基于可靠性的管道腐蚀管理的发展和应用。Copyright © 2012 by ASME
This paper describes a non-homogeneous gamma process-based model to characterize the growth of the depth of corrosion defect on oil and gas pipelines. All the parameters in the growth model are assumed to be uncertain; the probabilistic characteristics of these parameters are evaluated using the hierarchical Bayesian methodology by incorporating the defect information reported by the multiple in-line inspections (ILIs) as well as the prior knowledge about these parameters. The bias and random measurement error associated with the ILI tools as well as the correlation between the measurement errors associated with different ILI tools are taken into account in the analysis. The application of the model is illustrated using an example involving real ILI data on a pipeline that is currently in service. The results suggest that the model in general can predict the growth of corrosion defects reasonably well. The proposed model can be used to facilitate the development and application of reliability-based pipeline corrosion management.Copyright © 2012 by ASME