Links between plant species' spatial and temporal responses to a warming climate
Links between plant species' spatial and temporal responses to a warming climate
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2013.3017
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发表时间：
2014-03-22
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Sutherland, William J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Amano, Tatsuya;Freckleton, Robert P.;Sutherland, William J.
为了对物种对气候变化的反应做出现实的预测，我们需要了解限制其反应能力的因素。尽管气候生态位保守主义（随着时间的推移维持物种的气候生态位）是基于生态位的物种分布模型中的一个关键假设，但人们对其普遍性及其运作方式知之甚少。特别是，很少有研究通过物候变化来测试气候生态位保守主义在解释所报告的物种间范围变化程度的巨大差异方面的作用。利用气候变暖下英国植物物候和空间分布的历史记录，我们发现：（i）多年生物种，以及那些对温度的物候反应较弱或滞后的物种，在开花期间经历了更大的温度升高（即无法通过物候变化维持气候生态位）； (ii) 未能通过物候变化维持气候生态位的物种表现出更大的向北移动； (iii) 气候生态位保守性水平之间通过物候变化和范围变化存在互补关系。这些结果表明，即使是具有高度气候生态位保守性的物种也可能不会表现出范围变化，而是它们通过推进物候来跟踪开花期间的变暖温度。
To generate realistic projections of species' responses to climate change, we need to understand the factors that limit their ability to respond. Although climatic niche conservatism, the maintenance of a species's climatic niche over time, is a critical assumption in niche-based species distribution models, little is known about how universal it is and how it operates. In particular, few studies have tested the role of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes in explaining the reported wide variance in the extent of range shifts among species. Using historical records of the phenology and spatial distribution of British plants under a warming climate, we revealed that: (i) perennial species, as well as those with weaker or lagged phenological responses to temperature, experienced a greater increase in temperature during flowering (i. e. failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes); (ii) species that failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes showed greater northward range shifts; and (iii) there was a complementary relationship between the levels of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes and range shifts. These results indicate that even species with high climatic niche conservatism might not show range shifts as instead they track warming temperatures during flowering by advancing their phenology.