A Gaussian Model for the Time Development of the Sars-Cov-2 Corona Pandemic Disease. Predictions for Germany Made on 30 March 2020
A Gaussian Model for the Time Development of the Sars-Cov-2 Corona Pandemic Disease. Predictions for Germany Made on 30 March 2020
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DOI：
10.3390/physics2020010
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发表时间：
2020-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
Schlickeiser, Frank
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Schlickeiser, Reinhard;Schlickeiser, Frank
对于德国，预计第一波冠状大流行疾病将在2020年4月11日(+5.4)(-3.4)天达到最大新增感染人数，并有90%的把握。在延迟约7天的情况下，医院对呼吸机的最大需求出现在2020年4月18日(+5.4)(-3.4)天。第一波大流行于2020年5月底在德国结束。这些预测是基于高斯时间演化的假设，统计学的中心极限定理很好地证明了这一点。这种高斯分布的宽度和最大时间以及持续时间是根据与2020年3月28日之前观测到的倍增时间相匹配的统计CHI(2)来确定的。
For Germany, it is predicted that the first wave of the corona pandemic disease reaches its maximum of new infections on 11 April 2020 (+5.4)(-3.4) days with 90% confidence. With a delay of about 7 days the maximum demand on breathing machines in hospitals occurs on 18 April 2020 (+5.4)(-3.4) days. The first pandemic wave ends in Germany end of May 2020. The predictions are based on the assumption of a Gaussian time evolution well justified by the central limit theorem of statistics. The width and the maximum time and thus the duration of this Gaussian distribution are determined from a statistical chi(2)-fit to the observed doubling times before 28 March 2020.