Will an imperfect vaccine curtail the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S.?
Will an imperfect vaccine curtail the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S.?
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DOI：
10.1016/j.idm.2020.07.006
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发表时间：
2020-01-01
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Gumel, Abba B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Iboi, Enahoro A.;Ngonghala, Calistus N.;Gumel, Abba B.
2019年12月下旬在武汉市中国出现的新型冠状病毒(新冠肺炎)继续在世界各地构成毁灭性的公共卫生和经济挑战。尽管在全社区范围内实施基本的非药物干预措施，如社会距离、新冠肺炎疑似病例隔离、确诊病例隔离、在公共场合使用口罩、接触者追踪和检测，在遏制和减轻疫情负担方面相当有效，但人们普遍认为，可能需要使用疫苗来有效地遏制和消除人类人口中的新冠肺炎。这项研究是基于使用一个数学模型来评估假想的不完善的新冠肺炎抗疫苗对美国新冠肺炎控制的影响。推导了为实现疫苗诱导的社区群体免疫所需接种的未接种易感个体的最小百分比的解析表达式。群体免疫阈值的流行病学后果是，如果社区达到最低群体免疫阈值，疾病就可以得到有效控制或消除。使用模型与美国新冠肺炎死亡率数据拟合得到的基线参数值对该模型进行模拟，结果表明，对于假设保护效力为80%的新冠肺炎抗疫苗，至少82%的美国易感人口需要接种疫苗才能达到群体免疫阈值。如果疫苗接种计划与其他干预措施相结合，如使用口罩和/或社交距离，使用假想疫苗在美国消除新冠肺炎的可能性将大大增加。这样的策略组合大大降低了疫苗诱导的群体免疫阈值水平，这是在美国消除大流行所需的。例如，如果有一半的美国人经常在公共场合戴口罩，群体免疫门槛就会降到72%(如果每个人都戴口罩，门槛就会降到46%)。(C)2020作者。爱思唯尔B.V.代表科爱通信有限公司制作和主办。
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) that emerged from Wuhan city of China in late December 2019 continue to pose devastating public health and economic challenges across the world. Although the community-wide implementation of basic non-pharmaceutical intervention measures, such as social distancing, quarantine of suspected COVID-19 cases, isolation of confirmed cases, use of face masks in public, contact tracing and testing, have been quite effective in curtailing and mitigating the burden of the pandemic, it is universally believed that the use of a vaccine may be necessary to effectively curtail and eliminating COVID-19 in human populations. This study is based on the use of a mathematical model for assessing the impact of a hypothetical imperfect anti-COVID-19 vaccine on the control of COVID-19 in the United States. An analytical expression for the minimum percentage of unvaccinated susceptible individuals needed to be vaccinated in order to achieve vaccine-induced community herd immunity is derived. The epidemiological consequence of the herd immunity threshold is that the disease can be effectively controlled or eliminated if the minimum herd immunity threshold is achieved in the community. Simulations of the model, using baseline parameter values obtained from fitting the model with COVID-19 mortality data for the U.S., show that, for an anti-COVID-19 vaccine with an assumed protective efficacy of 80%, at least 82% of the susceptible US population need to be vaccinated to achieve the herd immunity threshold. The prospect of COVID-19 elimination in the US, using the hypothetical vaccine, is greatly enhanced if the vaccination program is combined with other interventions, such as face mask usage and/or social distancing. Such combination of strategies significantly reduces the level of the vaccine-induced herd immunity threshold needed to eliminate the pandemic in the US. For instance, the herd immunity threshold decreases to 72% if half of the US population regularly wears face masks in public (the threshold decreases to 46% if everyone wears a face mask). (C) 2020 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.